In September 2026, the electronic components market continued to experience structural tightness. AI servers drove a surge in demand for high-end materials such as memory, MLCCs, and power devices. Original manufacturers continuously shifted capacity towards HBM, automotive-grade, and high-end passive components, leading to generally extended lead times for core categories and sustained price increases. Prices for analog, MCU (Microcontroller Unit), and discrete devices showed divergence. New price increase notices from original manufacturers such as onsemi, Renesas, and NXP were successively released, and lead times for some popular part numbers may still remain around 52 weeks. The divergence in passive components continued. Murata planned to discontinue some consumer part numbers and allocate more resources to AI-related applications. The spot market once saw a peak in inquiries, but ordinary consumer-grade products remained at low levels.
On the consumer electronics side, supported by the release of foldable screen flagships, terminal inventory stocking has somewhat recovered. However, rising memory prices have exerted certain pressure on the cost side of mobile phones and automobiles, and demand for mid-to-low-end general part numbers remains cautious. At the supply chain level, prolonged delivery cycles for equipment and components may further constrain capacity release. Original manufacturers prioritize supply for high-end customers, and spot price fluctuations in channels have intensified. Notably, price increase expectations for materials such as silicon wafers and photoresists have gradually become clear. Quotation adjustments may be initiated from October to next year, and cost transmission may bring new room for price increases in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to strengthen inventory management for scarce part numbers and moderately establish domestic substitution and safety stock. For general part numbers, maintain procurement on demand, and focus on original manufacturers' price adjustment notices, lead time changes, and alternative part verification to reduce delivery and cost escalation risks.
Lead Time Trends for Core Components
In September, lead times for core categories generally did not show a significant decline, with lead times for some popular models from top brands still approaching 52 weeks at the longest. The pace of price increases in the memory sector may have slowed down somewhat, but lead times for categories such as DRAM, SSD, and eMMC remain relatively long. Lead time pressure for automotive-grade and industrial-grade MCU (Microcontroller Unit), power devices, and high-end MLCCs remains high. During the month, factors such as the implementation of new prices from multiple original manufacturers, the release of a new round of price increase notices, and Murata's discontinuation of some consumer part numbers affected the market. The spot market saw a peak in inquiries and order locking in the first ten days, but the supply of ordinary consumer-grade materials remained relatively loose. Subsequent lead time trends still need to be continuously observed in combination with original manufacturers' capacity allocation, quotation adjustments, and changes in actual terminal demand.
1. Analog Devices
Data sources: Future Electronics, Xinsanban
Overall supply remains tight, with lead times mostly trending upwards and prices showing obvious divergence. Lead times and prices for some categories from Allegro, FTDI, Renesas, onsemi, and ST continue to face pressure, while prices for some brands such as Diodes, Infineon, ROHM, and Silergy remain relatively stable. The tightness of part numbers related to data centers, automotive-grade, and industrial applications may be higher, while consumer general part numbers are relatively mild, but specifics still depend on the model and terminal application. During the month, TI, onsemi, and Renesas all released a new round of price increase notices, indicating that original manufacturers' capacity and lead times remain continuously tight, and prices are difficult to decline in the short term.
2. Discrete Devices
Data sources: Future Electronics, compiled by Xinsanban
Lead times for most MOSFETs, diodes, TVS, and protection devices from ST, Infineon, Vishay, Littelfuse, etc., are maintained or extended, with some part numbers still reaching over 52 weeks. Prices for most are rising, while some categories such as Micro Commercial Components remain relatively stable. The tightness of devices related to AI servers, automotive-grade, and industrial applications may be higher, while ordinary consumer part numbers are relatively mild, but confirmation is needed based on specific models.
3. Memory
Data sources: Future Electronics, compiled by Xinsanban
Prices remain firm with no sign of loosening. Categories such as modules, SSDs, and eMMC generally maintain high levels of 26 to 52 weeks, and lead times for NOR/NAND Flash are also relatively high. On the price side, most categories still show an upward trend. Inventory from top manufacturers continues to be allocated on a monthly basis, and even cannot support new customer demands. The contradiction between supply and demand in memory continues to intensify, making it difficult to reduce lead times and prices in the short term. Overall, server and enterprise storage may be tighter, while the purchasing momentum for consumer storage is relatively weak.
4. Passive Components
Data sources: Future Electronics, compiled by Xinsanban
Lead times for more brands continue to lengthen. Lead times for some TDK products are up to 48 weeks at the longest, with prices continuing to rise or maintain high levels. Murata plans to gradually discontinue some consumer specifications to free up capacity. Samsung Electro-Mechanics has even signed a long-term order for AI server MLCCs worth nearly 1 billion US dollars, with order visibility extending to the end of 2027. The divergence on the resistor side is obvious. YAGEO's resistor lead times and prices both rise, while ROHM remains stable.
5. MCU
Data sources: Future Electronics, compiled by Xinsanban
Market divergence is obvious. Prices for 8/32-bit MCU and MPU from brands such as ST, NXP, and Microchip are generally raised. In terms of lead times, ST's 8-bit MCU and automotive part numbers maintain a high level of 40-52 weeks. Infineon's 32-bit MCU lead times still reach up to 97 weeks at the longest, and NXP's automotive and MPU lead times are also in the 18-52 week range. In contrast, lead times for various categories from Renesas remain relatively stable.
Overview of the Macro Market
I. Recent Dynamics in the Chinese Market
1. Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry (January-August 2026)
In the first eight months of 2026, profits in the electronics industry increased by 1.1 times year-on-year, contributing 62.0% to the growth of profits in industrial enterprises above designated size. Scenarios such as AI computing power, NEV (New Energy Vehicle), and IoT (Internet of Things) drove high growth in the manufacturing end. In August, IC (Integrated Circuit) exports reached 40.731 billion US dollars, and cumulative exports increased by 103.9% year-on-year. Industry prosperity still shows structural divergence, with high-end manufacturing and export driving being more obvious.
1.1 Added Value of the Integrated Circuit Industry Grew by 101.5% in August
In August, the added value of the integrated circuit manufacturing and optoelectronic device manufacturing industries increased by 101.5% and 36.1% respectively. AI (Artificial Intelligence) drove the output of products such as sensors and optical fibers to increase by 42.6% and 20.7% respectively.
From January to August, profits in the electronics industry increased by 1.1 times year-on-year, contributing 62.0% to the growth of profits in all industrial enterprises above designated size, serving as an important support for the rapid growth of profits in industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, emerging scenarios such as NEV (New Energy Vehicle), IoT (Internet of Things), and computing power centers drove an increase in chip demand. Profits in the related optoelectronic device manufacturing and semiconductor discrete device manufacturing industries increased by 72.0% and 51.8% respectively. The rapid development in the field of electronic basic raw materials drove profits in the electronic special materials manufacturing and electronic circuit manufacturing industries to increase by 2.3 times and 49.1% respectively.
1.2 Continuous Explosion of Integrated Circuit Exports
The trend of export growth continues. China's integrated circuit export value reached 40.731 billion US dollars in August, and the cumulative export value from January to August reached 256.751 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 103.9%.
II. Global Semiconductor Market
Omdia data shows that in the second quarter, global semiconductor revenue exceeded 425 billion US dollars, with a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 31.4%. The total semiconductor revenue in the first half of 2026 reached 752 billion US dollars. AI demand is reshaping the production priorities of memory suppliers, and the market continues to achieve unprecedented growth. The quarter-on-quarter increases of DRAM, NAND, and NOR in Q2 2026 all hit record highs for the same period since the institution's statistics began. The institution predicts that single-quarter revenue in Q3 2026 will further expand to over 500 billion US dollars. It should be noted that the non-memory semiconductor market grew by more than 10% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, far exceeding seasonal patterns. This means that market growth is not limited to memory, and the demand brought by AI is spreading to a broader range.
Supply Chain Dynamics Analysis
1. IDM/Fabless
Original manufacturers in the memory sector continue to shift capacity towards HBM, DDR5, and enterprise SSDs. Micron, Samsung, etc., plan to expand high-end capacity. Murata, Samsung Electro-Mechanics, TDK, etc., accelerate the shift towards MLCCs and thin-film inductors for AI servers. Murata plans to discontinue some consumer-grade part numbers, driving active inquiries and order locking in the spot market. TI, onsemi, Renesas, NXP, etc., have successively released price increase signals.
2. Foundry/Packaging and Testing/Materials/Equipment
TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) accelerates its 2nm capacity expansion and plans to raise foundry prices by 3%-6% starting in 2027. Capacity for advanced processes and advanced packaging remains tight. The capacity utilization rate for mature processes also maintains a high level. On the materials side, JSR, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo, and Shin-Etsu Chemical will raise photoresist prices starting in October, with a basic increase of about 15% across all categories, and a higher increase for the high-end ArF series. Silicon wafers, GlobalWafers, and other links are also recovering and adjusting prices. Cost pressure on the manufacturing side may further emerge in the fourth quarter.
3. Distributors
AI computing power, data centers, and memory have become the main driving forces. The cumulative revenue of WPG Holdings and WPI in the first eight months both exceeded the total for the whole year of 2025, showing that demand for AI servers, memory, and industrial and automotive applications continues to expand. Shannon Semicom holds a cautiously optimistic attitude towards memory prices. Yachuang Electronics plans to take a controlling stake in Yongjia Industrial for 47.6 million US dollars, further increasing its investment in active component distribution and the "distribution + in-house R&D" system. Overall, distribution channels continue to benefit from the AI computing power chain and the memory price increase cycle, but procurement on the consumer side tends to be conservative. Channel inventory management and product structure divergence will become the focus of subsequent attention.
Terminal Market Demand Tracking
1. PC Shipments
In the second quarter of 2026, global PC shipments fell to 65.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, marking the first decline after nine consecutive quarters of growth. Among them, desktop (including desktop workstations) shipments were 13.9 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; notebook (including mobile workstations) shipments were 51.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%. The main reason is that price increases in core components such as memory and CPU led to a general increase in terminal selling prices, suppressing consumers' willingness to replace devices. Institutions expect notebook shipments to decline by 9.4% year-on-year for the whole year of 2026, facing downward pressure starting from the third quarter, and the risk of subsequent market decline still exists.
2. Smartphone Shipments
Omdia's latest research shows that the global smartphone market is expected to shrink by 12% in 2026, but the total market value will increase by 12% to 651.6 billion US dollars. The market will tilt towards high-end products: the proportion of smartphones below 200 US dollars will drop significantly, and the share of high-end smartphones above 800 US dollars will rise to 28.4%.
3. Passenger Vehicle/NEV Production and Sales
From September 1 to 27, national NEV (New Energy Vehicle) passenger car retail sales reached 827,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 20% and a month-on-month increase of only 2%. Wholesale sales reached 1.032 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11% and a month-on-month decrease of 7%. The retail and wholesale penetration rates reached 65.7% and 70% respectively, hitting record highs for the same period. The auto market in September showed a rhythm of "high at the beginning and low at the end". In the fourth week, affected by a high base and wait-and-see sentiment, retail sales plummeted by 42% year-on-year, and manufacturers' wholesale sales turned negative month-on-month, actively controlling channel inventory. Cumulative retail sales for the whole year decreased by 13% year-on-year, but cumulative wholesale sales increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating that OEM production scheduling remains resilient. The increment is completely absorbed by NEVs, while demand for fuel vehicles continues to shrink.
4. AI Servers
The IDC report indicates that the global server market size reached 166.3 billion US dollars in the second quarter of 2026, surpassing the 125.3 billion US dollars in Q4 2025 to hit a record quarterly high. Divided by computing power type, GPU-accelerated server revenue reached 87.4 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 28.1%, with a market share of 52.6%. The ASP increased by 43.6%, while GPU shipments actually decreased by 10.8% year-on-year. Revenue from other accelerated servers increased by 237.6% year-on-year to 27.5 billion US dollars. The ASP of non-accelerated servers increased by 33.5% year-on-year.
The growth is mainly driven by unit price increases rather than quantity expansion. The supply of high-end GPUs is tight, and the value of computing power is concentrating in high value-added links. At the same time, the limited supply of components such as DRAM and HBM also restricts shipments.
From a macro perspective, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, believes that there are few signs of slowing down in the spending boom in the field of AI (Artificial Intelligence), and the total investment in the hyperscaler ecosystem may reach 1 trillion US dollars next year. Overall, AI infrastructure investment is still in an acceleration phase, the server market shows a trend towards high-end, and the bottleneck in the computing power supply chain is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Subsequently, attention needs to be paid to the pace of capital expenditure of cloud vendors and the improvement of component supply.
Summary
In the short term, the tight supply and demand pattern in the component market may remain obvious until the fourth quarter. AI computing power investment continues to be the core driving force, and the tightness of memory, power, and high-end passive components remains high. Price increases in upstream materials such as silicon wafers, photoresists, and CCL further raise manufacturing costs. The total demand for PCs and smartphones is weak, more affected by rising costs and inventory adjustments, and has not yet formed strong restocking momentum.
For scarce part numbers, it is recommended to strengthen inventory management according to the situation to avoid chasing high prices temporarily. At the same time, domestic substitution solutions can be actively evaluated to reduce supply risks. General materials can maintain procurement on demand, but attention needs to be paid to structural shortages caused by original manufacturers' capacity switching. During the period of market fluctuations, lead times and prices change rapidly. It is recommended to connect with the latest lead times, alternative parts, and quotations in a timely manner.
Note: The article and quoted data are compiled from the National Bureau of Statistics, Future Electronics, IDC, and public information for communication purposes only. They do not constitute any advice and do not represent the position of this account. Images are sourced from the internet, and copyrights belong to their original owners.