Recently, market research firm Counterpoint released partial smartphone shipment data for the third quarter of this year. Simply put, whether in the global or domestic market, the smartphone industry's performance this quarter has been relatively sluggish. Under the pressure of storage costs, overall shipments have declined.
Meanwhile, the smartphone market is experiencing further internal differentiation. In the past, several major leading brands captured most of the market share, presenting a relatively balanced landscape.
Today, super-leading brands represented by Apple and Huawei are cannibalizing the market share of other brands, intensifying the zero-sum game. In other words, the five or six leading brands we used to know are now being stratified into distinct tiers, with the gap between the first and second places and the third, fourth, and fifth places widening rapidly.
Smartphone Shipments Hit a New Low, but Huawei and Apple Remain the Winners
Looking at the global data first, a press release on Counterpoint's official website shows that in the third quarter of this year, global smartphone shipments fell by 20% year-on-year, marking the worst third-quarter performance since 2012. Counterpoint believes that the drastic decline in smartphone shipments is mainly due to the surging prices of memory and flash storage, which have brought enormous cost pressure to terminal manufacturers. Once this pressure is passed on to consumers, their willingness to purchase new phones naturally drops sharply.
The top five brands in Q3 smartphone shipments remain Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, with market shares of 23%, 22%, 12%, 9%, and 8%, respectively. The combined market share captured by these five brands reached 74%, an increase of 2 percentage points compared to Q3 last year. With storage prices rising, the five leading brands are certainly under immense pressure, and the survival space for smaller "Others" brands has been further compressed.
Comparing the data for Q3 2025, it can be seen that the changes in market share among the top five brands also vary. Samsung's market share increased from 19% to 23%, and Apple's share grew from 18% to 22%, while the market shares of Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo all decreased.
The overall situation in the domestic smartphone market in Q3 is similar, but the specific data is slightly different. First, overall shipments declined by 10%. While the situation is certainly not ideal, it is still more optimistic than the global market. The leading effect in the domestic market is also more pronounced, with the combined share of six brands reaching a staggering 97.3%.
Second, Counterpoint tracked six major brands: Huawei, Apple, vivo, OPPO, Xiaomi, and Honor, with market shares of 21.3%, 19.5%, 15.2%, 15.1%, 13.5%, and 12.7%, respectively. Based on this data, the secondary differentiation of leading brands in the domestic market is very similar to the global market, except that the two "super-leading" brands are now Huawei and Apple, which have captured a combined market share of over 40%.
Compared to Q3 last year, the domestic market shares of Huawei and Apple have both seen significant growth, while the shares of the other four brands have all declined. Moreover, in Q3 last year, the market shares captured by the six major brands were not much different, essentially "dividing" the domestic market equally. However, in Q3 this year, the landscape of the smartphone industry has shifted to Huawei and Apple taking the lion's share, leaving the other four brands with the scraps.
Overall, the impact of rising storage prices on the smartphone industry has been massive. While the market shares of most brands have declined, super-brands like Huawei and Apple have still managed to absorb this pressure relatively successfully, even achieving counter-cyclical growth in both shipments and market share.
Leading Brands Converge on the High-End Market, Making Flagship Competition Even Fiercer
As we mentioned in previous articles, rising storage prices have the greatest impact on mid-to-low-end smartphones, which have lower profit margins and target more price-sensitive users. Therefore, smartphone manufacturers have unanimously shifted their focus to high-end products with larger profit margins.
However, the situation of rising storage prices is intensifying, to the point where quotes change several times a month. Moreover, next-generation flagship chips are also increasing in price. As a result, the cost of flagship phones has surged significantly, and the proportion of storage in the bill of materials (BOM) cost has reached an unprecedented high.
The impact on new flagship models has been disastrous, forcing manufacturers to adjust their product strategies.
First, the simplest and most direct approach is to raise prices. Almost all new flagship models this year have seen price increases. The starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro has been raised by CNY 1,000, and the price increase for high-capacity versions like the 1TB model has reached CNY 2,500. On the Android side, the starting price of the OPPO Find X10 standard edition is CNY 1,100 higher than the launch price of the Find X9 standard edition, the starting price of the vivo X500 is also CNY 1,100 more expensive than the X300, and the starting price of the Xiaomi 17 Pro is CNY 1,000 higher than the previous generation.
Of course, to minimize the "pain" of price increases for users, the increase in the starting price of flagships has been kept around CNY 1,000. In reality, the price hikes for high-capacity versions such as 512GB and 1TB are much more exaggerated, which largely affects the willingness of high-capacity version users to upgrade their phones.
Second, manufacturers are adjusting the release schedules and product portfolios for the standard, Pro, and Pro Max versions of new flagship models. It can be observed that the new flagship models released this autumn basically have changes in this regard. Apple and Xiaomi have directly delayed the release of their standard digital versions, temporarily only launching the Pro models. This is mainly done to prioritize the allocation of limited resources like storage to higher-margin models. Recently, Apple even plans to cut orders for the iPhone 18 Pro to prioritize the production of the iPhone Duo, simply because foldable screens yield higher profits.
Another approach taken by some manufacturers is to squeeze in new "mini" models within the new flagship series. Taking the OPPO Find X10 series as an example, an X10E model has been added, which uses the lower-tier Dimensity 9500s chip. Adding these "mini" models serves two purposes: on the one hand, it lowers the starting price of the entire flagship series, mitigating the impact of the price hike; on the other hand, these mini models use older-generation chips, making costs more controllable.
Before the wave of storage price increases, apart from Apple, the high-volume models for most brands were mainly mid-to-low-end phones. However, now, storage pressure has forced everyone into close-quarters combat in the high-end flagship market, where the existing pool is smaller and the competition is even more brutal.
The fact that Apple and Huawei can still stand out and expand their market advantages is closely related to their inherent strengths. They are among the few brands in the smartphone industry that can independently control their self-developed chips and system ecosystems, giving them a stronger ability to absorb the pressure of rising storage prices. At the same time, their long-term focus on the high-end market has also endowed them with stronger user stickiness and product advantages.
According to data disclosed by digital blogger @RD Observation, who has long tracked individual smartphone model sales, as of October 11, the domestic shipments of the iPhone 18 Pro series have exceeded 4.08 million units, less than a month after its official release. Just one week after launch, sales of the iPhone 18 Pro series approached 1.3 million units, which is 15% higher than the iPhone 17 Pro series during the same period last year.
Relatively speaking, Huawei has more diverse and dispersed flagship models, but the performance of individual series is equally strong. As of October 11, the cumulative sales of the Huawei Pura 90 series have exceeded 1.63 million units, the Mate 90 series has surpassed 430,000 units, and the Huawei Pura X View, released in September, has now sold over 550,000 units.
Continuously and successfully creating hot-selling flagship blockbusters is the key for super-leading brands to harvest the market.
Can the Double 11 Shopping Festival Save the Market?
Typically, the annual Double 11 Shopping Festival is a crucial node for smartphone promotions, and many consumers choose to buy new phones during this time. But frankly, during this year's Double 11, the discount intensity from various manufacturers' campaigns is not as strong as before. On the one hand, the new autumn models have just been released, leaving virtually no room for price cuts. On the other hand, the situation of rising storage prices has not yet eased, and some models have already seen a round of price hikes. Under cost pressure, it is difficult to offer substantial discounts.
Currently, there are mainly a few types of Double 11 smartphone-related promotional activities. First are platform subsidies, similar to the "Billion Dollar Subsidy" program. E-commerce platforms will still release a portion of coupons applicable to smartphone products during this year's Double 11. For example, on the Pinduoduo platform, the coupon price for the 256GB version of the iPhone 18 Pro Max is CNY 9,899, which is CNY 1,100 cheaper than the official price. If you plan to buy a new flagship phone, you can pay attention to such offers.
Then, there are price cuts and clearance sales for some older models. For instance, the standard version of the Xiaomi 15 is priced at just over CNY 2,000. Although its performance cannot match the latest flagship models today, it is not inferior to mid-range new phones that often cost CNY 3,000 to CNY 4,000. OPPO, vivo, Honor, and others also have similar models. However, when buying such phones, pay attention to the sales channels and after-sales service, and try to purchase from self-operated or official stores.
For smartphone manufacturers, given the overall sluggishness of the smartphone market, it is difficult to rescue shipment volumes through a single phase of major promotions. In the past, Double 11 was a recovery node for manufacturers to boost sales and clear inventory. However, with the costs of core components like chips and storage remaining high, it is hard for manufacturers to trade market share for promotions as they did in previous years.
For the entire smartphone industry, the chain reaction triggered by rising storage prices is also accelerating industry consolidation. Over the past few years, several leading brands were still able to maintain a relatively balanced posture within their respective comfort zones.
Now, as the overall market continues to shrink, competition among brands has become more intense and differentiated. The smartphone industry is shifting from a landscape of multiple strong players to a situation where a few super-leading brands take it all. As for when this situation will change, it all depends on when this wave of storage price increases comes to an end.