This article explores the underlying causes by tracing the supply chains of helium, naphtha, and photoresist, and discusses future prospects.
In March 2026, Iran attacked a liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Ras Laffan, Qatar. This triggered widespread concerns about potential significant disruptions to the supply of helium (He), a byproduct of LNG production.
Around the same time, Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, plunging energy logistics into chaos. In April 2026, it was reported that over 600 vessels, including 325 oil tankers, were stranded near the strait; subsequently, approximately 2,000 vessels were stranded in the Persian Gulf. It is believed that many of these tankers were carrying helium and naphtha, the latter being a consumable for various semiconductor manufacturing equipment and a raw material for photoresist.
Given the above circumstances, the prospect of global semiconductor fabs halting production due to the triple blow of "helium shortage," "naphtha shortage," and "photoresist shortage" has become a matter of high concern. This article explores the underlying causes by tracing the supply chains of helium, naphtha, and photoresist, and discusses future prospects.
Overview of the Crisis Involving Front-End Fab Shutdowns
First, let us outline the applications of helium in semiconductor front-end processes, as well as the applications of naphtha-derived components and materials (Figure 1).
Figure 1: In the aforementioned process flow, where is helium used? And where are naphtha-derived components and materials used?
In front-end processes, a series of steps, including cleaning, thin-film deposition, lithography, dry etching, cleaning, and inspection, are repeated 50 to 100 times or more on silicon (Si) wafers, thereby simultaneously forming dozens to hundreds of chips. Depending on the chip, the total number of steps can exceed 1,000. This applies not only to advanced logic circuits but also to all semiconductor devices, including mature logic circuits, DRAM, NAND flash memory, power management ICs (PMICs), and analog circuits.
The following two points are critical.
First, if the helium supply is disrupted, some thin-film deposition processes and dry etching will become impossible, resulting in "instant failure," and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography may also be at risk.
Second, all equipment from cleaning and thin-film deposition to lithography, dry etching, and inspection uses naphtha-derived consumable parts, and the raw materials for chemicals such as photoresist and isopropyl alcohol are also naphtha-derived.
In other words, both helium (He) and naphtha can be considered the "Achilles' heels" of semiconductor front-end processes.
Helium-Dependent Front-End Processes, Particularly Dry Etching
Figure 2 illustrates the degree of impact of helium supply disruption on various processes. Dry etching is the most severely affected, with a risk level of "extremely high," meaning the process itself cannot be performed ("instant failure"). Next, single-wafer high-precision chemical vapor deposition (CVD), narrow-temperature-window edge atomic layer deposition (ALD), strictly temperature-controlled sputtering, and edge epitaxial growth are all at "high" risk, leading to degradation in film thickness, film quality, stress, and crystallinity. On the other hand, batch furnace CVD and general ALD can continue with only minor condition adjustments.
Figure 2: The degree of impact of helium supply disruption on various front-end processes.
Then, why does dry etching lead to instant failure? The reason lies in the principle of wafer temperature control (Figure 3). In dry etching equipment, a large amount of heat is transferred from the plasma to the wafer. Therefore, it is necessary to circulate a coolant (e.g., at -60°C) within the electrostatic chuck of the wafer stage to cool the wafer (the temperature of this coolant varies, ranging from below -100°C to above +100°C, and is optimized for each process).
Figure 3. The principle of temperature control in dry etching equipment.
However, at the microscopic level, there is only one contact point between the electrostatic chuck and the backside of the wafer, so coolant circulation alone cannot sufficiently cool the wafer. Therefore, it is necessary to inject helium (He) at 1-2 kPa into the gap between the electrostatic chuck and the wafer. Since helium is a light, monatomic molecule with extremely high movement speed, it can effectively transfer heat from the wafer to the electrostatic chuck. Afterward, this helium is exhausted by a vacuum pump. In other words, it is "single-use."
In other words, without helium, wafer temperature control cannot be achieved, and the dry etching process itself cannot be performed. Not only low-temperature etching processes like deep hole drilling for 3D NAND, but all dry etching processes cannot be completed. This is what is referred to as "instant failure."
Naphtha-Related Equipment Parts and Photoresist
What about naphtha? All consumables for semiconductor manufacturing equipment use naphtha-derived parts and materials, including: (1) high-performance resins; (2) rubber and elastomers, such as O-rings; (3) plasma-resistant and chemical-resistant fluorine-based materials; (4) fluid components, such as pipes and valves; and (5) cables and insulation materials. Since manufacturing equipment requires regular replacement of consumables to maintain stable operation, the depletion of parts inventory will directly lead to equipment downtime, subsequently leading to the shutdown of the entire fab.
Another severe issue is photoresist. The production process of photoresist is: naphtha → propylene → propylene oxide (PO) → PGME → PGMEA → photoresist (Note). Five Japanese companies (Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd., JSR, Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd., Fujifilm, and Sumitomo Chemical Co., Ltd.) monopolize over 90% of the global photoresist market, and these five companies procure almost all of their PGME and PGMEA from the Japanese manufacturer Daicel Corporation. If any link in this supply chain is disrupted, global semiconductor fabs will halt production.
Then, why haven't semiconductor fabs shut down? Let us first look at naphtha production. Figure 4 shows naphtha production by region. Globally, about 1 billion tons of naphtha are produced annually, of which approximately 18% (about 180 million tons) comes from the Middle East. Out of this 1 billion tons of naphtha, about 600 million tons are used as ethylene feedstock, about 200 million tons as gasoline blendstock, and about 100 million tons as BTX (benzene, toluene, xylene). Less than 1 million tons, or less than 0.1% of the global naphtha total, is used to produce semiconductor materials such as PGME, PGMEA, and photoresist.
Figure 4: Regional and global naphtha production (2025-2026). Source: Estimated by the author based on global refining capacity, crude oil processing volume, and naphtha yield (approximately 15-20%).
Therefore, even if the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz leads to a naphtha shortage, Daicel and photoresist manufacturers can prioritize securing this extremely small amount of naphtha for semiconductor materials. Given the minuscule proportion of naphtha used for photoresist, this structure makes the supply of semiconductor materials easier to guarantee.
The situation with helium (He) is entirely different. As shown in Figure 5, global annual helium production is 190 million cubic meters, with the United States accounting for 42.6% and Qatar for 33.2%. A disruption in Qatar's helium supply would mean a loss of one-third of the global supply. Furthermore, the semiconductor industry is expected to consume about 21% to 24% of global helium, or 39 million to 46 million cubic meters annually. Qatar's annual helium supply of 63 million cubic meters exceeds the total annual consumption of the global semiconductor industry. Even a simple quantitative comparison reveals the magnitude of the impact.
Figure 5: Regional and global helium production (2025). Source: USGS 2026 data.
However, there are three reasons why semiconductor fabs have not shut down.
First, "reserves" are key; gas producers such as Linde, Air Liquide, Air Products, and Iwatani Corporation have stockpiled a certain amount of gas, which helps absorb the initial shock.
Second, regarding "inventory and recycling," companies have increased their inventories based on past experiences of helium shortages, and TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and Samsung Electronics have implemented helium recycling systems (although not entirely across the board).
Third, according to the "priority supply rules," the priority order is medical → aerospace/defense → semiconductor industry → general industry → balloons, with balloons and general industrial supplies being cut first.
However, helium (He) cannot be stored for the long term. Liquid helium needs to be stored at ultra-low temperatures below -269°C, and about 1% of the helium is lost daily due to evaporation. Therefore, without timely replenishment, helium reserves will drop below 75% within 30 days, below 50% within 70 days, and below 10% within 230 days. Moreover, the transportation of liquid helium requires dedicated ISO containers, of which there are only a few hundred globally.
Furthermore, the helium inventory at semiconductor fabs can only last from a few days to a few weeks, whereas the inventory at gas companies and logistics centers can last from a few weeks to a few months, meaning that even if all available resources are mobilized, the supply can be sustained for a maximum of about six months. In other words, the harm of a helium supply disruption is far greater than the shortage of naphtha-derived photoresist. The current helium crisis is not resolved, only temporarily delayed.
Impact on Logic Semiconductors
If the helium (He) supply disruption lasts too long, the most severely affected will be cutting-edge logic devices. The formation of GAA (Gate-All-Around nanosheet structure) for the 2nm process (N2) involves numerous processes requiring precise temperature control, such as multi-layer epitaxial growth of Si and SiGe, selective plasma etching of the sacrificial SiGe layer, and atomic layer deposition (ALD) of the inner spacer layer (Figure 6). Among these, the plasma etching of SiGe is the most difficult process and is inseparable from helium. In other words, without helium, the GAA process itself cannot be performed.
Figure 6. Multiple steps in the GAA nanosheet formation process require precise temperature control. Source: Adapted and annotated by Takashi Yunogami based on the IBM Research nanosheet GAA process flow (IEDM 2019-2021), with additional supplements by the author.
Figure 7 shows the impact of helium supply disruption on logic semiconductor nodes and the expected shutdown time for semiconductor fabs. The next-generation cutting-edge logic chips A14 and N2, produced by companies such as TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and Rapidus, are affected "extremely severely," leading to immediate fab shutdowns following a helium supply disruption, lasting up to a maximum of three months. N3 chips will also shut down within three months, while N5 and N7 chips will shut down within six months.
Figure 7: Logic semiconductor nodes, major applications, and predicted semiconductor fab shutdown times (pink indicates Japanese semiconductor fabs, their major applications, and their relationship with the automotive industry).
Particularly noteworthy are the mature nodes: 10-28nm (including TSMC's Kumamoto Fab 1) will shut down for 6-12 months, and automotive, analog, and power semiconductors (40nm and above) from companies such as Renesas Electronics and Rohm will also shut down after 12 months, all of which could lead to the "destruction of the automotive industry."
This is because, even at mature process nodes, the certification standards for automotive semiconductors are extremely strict, and automakers will not accept chips that have not undergone helium dry etching. In other words, the issue of helium supply disruption poses a risk not only to cutting-edge technologies.
If Qatar's helium supply remains at zero, how long can the semiconductor industry survive?
In the initial 0-3 months, the situation can be controlled through inventory, underground storage, increased flights from the United States, and reallocation among different applications. Although prices will skyrocket, major semiconductor fabs will continue to operate.
Within 3 to 6 months, quota cuts will begin, starting with non-contract users, small semiconductor fabs, research institutions, back-end processes, and general products.
In the following 6 to 12 months, partial operational restrictions, including those on advanced semiconductor fabs, will become a reality, placing a particularly heavy burden on Asian countries such as South Korea, China, and Japan, which rely on long-distance imports of liquid helium.
If the shortage persists for more than a year, unless production increases in countries such as the United States, Canada, Algeria, and Russia can fill the 33% gap, the semiconductor industry will be forced to prioritize which products to manufacture.
This indicates that the crisis will not lead to the simultaneous closure of all semiconductor fabs, but will quietly unfold in the following sequence: allocation → significant price hikes → reduction in the production of older, low-margin products → partial shutdowns by region and company.
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