If you open any press release for an auto show in 2026, the term "solid-state battery" will most likely appear in the most prominent position. However, if you actually walk into a 4S dealership and ask the salesperson, "Which car uses a fully solid-state battery?" they will most likely pause for a moment and then direct you to a model labeled as "semi-solid-state" or "condensed-state."
This is the current reality of solid-state batteries: the concept is no longer new, and vehicle integration is indeed happening, but it is still separated by a significant gap from the "ultimate solution" envisioned by most.
01. Semi-Solid-State Batteries Are Already on the Road, While Fully Solid-State Batteries Remain in the "Validation Phase"
Let us first look at what has already happened. The industry has defined 2026 as the first year of mass production for semi-solid-state batteries. The IM Motors L6 Guangnian Edition is also equipped with a semi-solid-state battery, offering a CLTC range of 1,002 kilometers. Dongfeng Motor has also built a 0.2 GWh solid-state battery pilot production line, achieving mass production and vehicle integration of 350 Wh/kg batteries in September 2026, with a total vehicle range reaching 1,000 kilometers.
Two years ago, these figures were merely "presentation parameters" in laboratories; today, they have become orderable configurations. However, from a technical classification perspective, almost all of them belong to the semi-solid-state category—with electrolyte content reduced to 5%–10%—essentially serving as an "improved version" rather than a "replacement" for liquid lithium-ion batteries.
For true fully solid-state batteries, the timeline is generally anchored around 2027. CATL (300750) has a clear plan to achieve small-batch production of fully solid-state batteries in 2027 and complete large-scale application before 2030. Geely Auto (00175.HK) aims for small-batch industrialization of fully solid-state batteries in 2027, with 1,000 demonstration and operational vehicles, and its long-term goal is to complete the industrialization layout of fully solid-state batteries by 2030, by which time the cell energy density is expected to exceed 500 Wh/kg. Chery Automobile also plans to officially launch fully solid-state battery vehicle integration demonstrations in 2027. The mass production milestones for fully solid-state batteries at companies such as BYD (002594) and Sunwoda (300207) are also concentrated in 2027.
Therefore, if one word is used to summarize the current state, "validation phase" is more accurate than "mass production phase." Semi-solid-state batteries are being sold, while fully solid-state batteries are being tested.
02. The Bottleneck for Fully Solid-State Batteries Is Not "Whether They Can Be Made," but "Whether They Can Be Made Well"
Regarding the core challenge of fully solid-state batteries, there is a consensus in the industry: solid-solid interfacial contact. Liquid electrolytes naturally wet the electrode materials, whereas the contact between solid electrolytes and electrodes is "hard-on-hard," resulting in high interfacial impedance. During cycling, cracks and dendrites are prone to forming, ultimately leading to a chain reaction of "poor contact—interfacial failure—performance degradation."
This issue can be resolved in the laboratory using high-pressure fixtures, but it does not work when integrated into vehicles. High pressure implies additional structural weight and a sharp increase in manufacturing costs. Warm isostatic pressing equipment is considered the key to solving this problem. Equipment manufacturers such as Lyric Robot (688499) and Lead Intelligent (300450) have already shipped warm isostatic pressing equipment, but it is still a distance away from large-scale production line validation.
Cost is another hurdle. Pan Ruijun, head of R&D for the Jinshi fully solid-state battery at Gotion High-Tech (002074), provided a specific cost reduction roadmap: when the cost of lithium sulfide drops to CNY 500,000 per ton and the cost of solid electrolytes drops to CNY 300,000 per ton, the price of solid-state batteries is expected to be pushed below CNY 1/Wh. This goal does not sound too distant, but it must be noted that the current price of lithium sulfide is far higher than this, and the scale-up at the upstream of the industrial chain has not yet truly begun.
In other words, the technical route for fully solid-state batteries has basically converged on the sulfide system, but between "being able to make them" and "being able to make them cheaply, stably, and at a large scale" lies the maturity of the entire industrial chain.
03. Capital Is Flooding In, but the Pace Deserves More Attention Than the Enthusiasm
The reaction of the capital market has always been half a step ahead of the industry. According to incomplete statistics from GGII, in the first half of 2026, the planned investment in solid-state batteries and core materials in China exceeded CNY 50 billion, of which solid-state battery projects accounted for over CNY 37 billion, and investment in the solid electrolyte sector exceeded CNY 8 billion, an increase of about four times compared to the scale of less than CNY 2 billion in the same period in 2025.
The policy push is equally clear. In September 2026, the MIIT and six other departments jointly issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry," which is the first national-level special plan in the battery field, explicitly proposing to initially achieve large-scale application of fully solid-state batteries by 2030. The plan also specifically mentions the need to "accelerate breakthroughs in the industrialization technology of fully solid-state batteries," shifting the policy focus from directional guidance to engineering implementation.
However, industry analysis institutions have a much more objective judgment on the pace than the capital market. Wang Jian, an analyst at TrendForce, judges that: semi-solid-state batteries will be the first to be implemented in 2026–2027, mainly targeting high-end vehicle models and robotics scenarios; fully solid-state passenger cars will only enter a small-scale introduction window in 2027–2028; and true large-scale supply will have to wait until 2029–2030, on the premise that continuous manufacturing, stacking processes, and lithium metal anode yield rates meet expectations.
Ni Jun, Chief Manufacturing Officer of CATL, also publicly stated in September this year that it will take at least five more years for fully solid-state batteries to truly achieve large-scale implementation. This judgment basically aligns with the industry consensus around 2030.
The global competitive landscape is also taking shape simultaneously. Japan's Toyota has obtained production permission from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan. Originally scheduled to start mass production of solid-state batteries in 2026, it announced in February 2026 that it would be postponed to small-batch vehicle integration in 2028, with initial priority supply to high-end Lexus models. South Korea's Samsung SDI plans to start mass production at its Ulsan plant in the second half of 2027. The race among China, Japan, and South Korea has extended from the laboratory level to the production line level.
04. Concluding Remarks
The industrialization of solid-state batteries is not a sudden mutation that "changes the world overnight," but a long-distance race that requires the simultaneous maturity of materials, equipment, processes, and standards. Semi-solid-state batteries have already proven their commercial viability in high-end vehicle models, but their significance lies more in "paving the way" for fully solid-state batteries rather than "replacing" them. The technical direction of fully solid-state batteries is already clear, but the hard engineering bones—interfacial contact, yield rate, and cost—each require substantial time and trial-and-error to overcome.
For ordinary consumers, the "solid-state battery cars" available for purchase in 2026 will most likely still be semi-solid-state versions. True fully solid-state passenger cars will have to wait until the small-scale introduction in 2027–2028 at the earliest. As for making fully solid-state batteries shift from "high-end optional features" to "mass-market standard configurations," the industry's answer is consistent: it will only be possible around 2030.