Author: Qinghe, Editor: Shuijing 24chao Industry Research Institute (TTIR)
Driven by profound policy and industrial impacts, sodium-ion batteries are once again at the forefront of the industry.
First, in terms of policy, the signal of policy support is already very clear. In February 2025, a year ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and other departments issued the Action Plan for the High-Quality Development of New Energy Storage Manufacturing, which proposed for the first time the development of diversified new energy storage core technologies, with sodium-ion batteries ranked after lithium-ion batteries.
In July 2026, an announcement from the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Taxation Administration further clarified the strategic position of sodium-ion batteries in technological and industrial upgrades. According to the announcement, from September 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028, sodium-ion batteries will remain exempt from consumption tax. In contrast, starting September 1, 2026, a 2% consumption tax will be levied on battery products such as lithium-ion rechargeable batteries; and starting September 1, 2027, the tax rate for these battery products will increase to 4%. This classified adjustment of the consumption tax has bolstered the confidence for the sustainable development of sodium-ion batteries.
At the industrial level, for many years, sodium-ion batteries have always been regarded as a low-to-mid-end alternative to lithium-ion batteries, a stereotype that is now being broken. After years of continuous exploration and breakthroughs in technology and processes, current sodium-ion batteries have demonstrated unique competitive advantages such as a wide operating temperature range, high safety, and high discharge rates. In energy storage, power applications, two-wheelers, and start-stop systems, sodium-ion batteries are showing great potential.
Robin Zeng, Chairman of CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited), stated that in the long run, the substitution ratio of sodium-ion batteries for the existing market is expected to reach 30% to 40%.
Morgan Stanley provided a more explicit timeline, estimating that by 2030, sodium-ion batteries are expected to account for about 20% of the global battery deployment market; by 2035, this proportion will further increase to 37%.
According to the institution's forecast, the market share of sodium-ion batteries in 2027 will only be about 2%. In other words, the next decade will be a period of rapid volume expansion for the sodium-ion battery industry. Morgan Stanley even described this as the arrival of "The New Oil Age," which is expected to generate up to $800 billion in new investments.
The 24chao Industry Research Institute (TTIR, also known as SCIR in some industry releases) believes that to break free from the "chokehold" dilemma of relying on others for lithium resources, developing sodium-ion batteries is an inevitable move for the healthy and high-quality development of the battery industry. Coupled with the gradual reduction in costs and policy support such as tax incentives, the equalization of rights between lithium and sodium is becoming a reality.
The Era of Sodium-Lithium Equalization: Sodium-Ion Batteries' "LFP Moment"
The core driver of sodium-ion battery development has always been market demand.
In 2022, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, expectations for low-cost sodium-ion batteries to replace lithium-ion batteries heated up. CATL's launch of its first-generation sodium-ion battery further heightened market anticipation. However, since the second half of 2023, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped significantly, and the progress of large-scale commercialization of sodium-ion batteries has fallen short of expectations. After the hype, the industry has returned to silence.
Although the R&D of lithium and sodium-ion batteries started almost simultaneously, the industry's doubts about sodium-ion batteries have persisted, mainly focusing on performance shortcomings and relatively high costs. Currently, these gaps are being gradually bridged. On April 21, at the 2026 Super Technology Day, CATL released its second-generation "Na Xing" (Sodium New) mass-produced battery with an energy density of 175Wh/kg, narrowing the gap with mainstream LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries to less than 10%. Its cycle life at room temperature can reach 15,000 times, with a capacity retention rate of over 90% in the extreme cold of -40°C, stable discharge in the extreme environment of -50°C, and a pure electric range of 400 to 600 kilometers. It has been applied to multiple car models. Along with performance improvements, technological advancements are driving costs down steadily.
In early June, Wang Zunzhi, General Manager of the Sodium-Ion Battery Division of Ronbay Technology, publicly stated that sodium-ion batteries are replicating the path of LFP in 2020, and the sodium-ion battery industry is ushering in its own "LFP moment." In 2026, the company's total capacity will reach 28,000 tons; in 2027, the company plans to build a new 300,000-ton dedicated integrated production line for sodium-ion batteries (based on the development of dedicated equipment for pilot lines).
According to disclosures, the material cost of Ronbay Technology's first-generation sodium-ion cathode products, which will be mass-produced in 2026, is already equivalent to that of LFP cathodes when the price of lithium carbonate is 150,000 RMB/ton. With further improvements in product performance in 2027, the corresponding cost per watt-hour is expected to drop to the LFP level when the price of lithium carbonate is below 60,000 RMB/ton. According to institutional estimates, the current cost of sodium-ion batteries is above 0.41 RMB/Wh, which is still slightly higher than the approximately 0.36 RMB/Wh for LFP lithium batteries. In the future, it is expected to drop to 0.20-0.30 RMB/Wh, narrowing the price gap between the two.
Along with continuous performance improvements and ongoing cost reductions, sodium-ion batteries will no longer be just a low-spec alternative to lithium-ion batteries, but will truly achieve lithium-sodium equalization. Industry insiders generally believe that price-sensitive scenarios such as energy storage, two-wheelers, and A00-class passenger cars will be dominated by sodium-ion batteries, while mid-to-high-end passenger cars and high-end energy storage will still be held by LFP and ternary (NCM/NCA) batteries.
In fact, the steadily enhancing advantages of sodium-ion batteries have already been demonstrated in practice. According to media reports, in mid-to-late June, bidding for energy storage supporting facilities in computing power parks for the "East Data and West Computing" project in multiple regions in the Southwest and Northwest was launched. Among them, both sodium-ion and LFP energy storage systems are qualified to bid independently, and the energy storage configuration scale for a single station in the projects is mostly 50MW/100MWh (i.e., a power of 50 megawatts and a capacity of 100 megawatt-hours). Notably, centralized energy storage supporting facilities for large-scale commercial computing power parks have long been dominated by LFP batteries. Now, sodium-ion batteries can also join them and participate in the configuration.
Data shows that in low-temperature environments, sodium-ion batteries have a more competitive advantage. Taking the Arctic series products of Xingchu Shiji (Xingchu Energy) as an example, they feature over 10,000 deep cycles (100% DOD), excellent low-temperature performance (capacity retention rate of over 91% at -40°C, supporting cycles at -20°C), and ultra-high safety performance, mainly applied in energy storage and containerized large-scale energy storage scenarios. In June 2025, in Shigatse, Tibet, at an altitude of nearly 5,000 meters, the company built a microgrid for the first time using "photovoltaic + sodium-ion energy storage" technology, bringing stable power to local herdsmen. The project has been running smoothly for several months, verifying the safety, stability, and environmental adaptability of its sodium-ion battery products in high-cold, high-altitude, and weak-grid areas.
Morgan Stanley analysts judge that in the future, the sodium-ion battery market is expected to develop from the current pilot stage into a global market of about 830 GWh (1 GWh equals 1 million kWh) by 2030, and further expand to about 2.4 TWh (1 TWh equals 1 billion kWh) by 2035. Sodium-ion batteries are expected to unlock about 50% of new energy storage demand.
The currently booming AIDC (AI Data Center) field is also an important incremental market for sodium-ion batteries. Wang Shaoping, General Manager of EAST Group (East Group)'s sodium-ion battery division, once discussed the three major pain points of AIDC machine rooms and stated that compared to lead-acid batteries, sodium-ion batteries only have short-term cost shortcomings in the current initial stage of scale-up. They achieve comprehensive dominance in core performance dimensions such as safety, cycle life, high and low-temperature performance, discharge rate, and lightweight design. Their performance in extreme wide-temperature environments far exceeds that of lithium-ion batteries, while completely avoiding the thermal runaway safety hazards of lithium-ion batteries, maximizing safety attributes in closed machine room conditions. Sodium-ion batteries can also support ultra-high-rate pulse discharge, perfectly matching the instantaneous high-power fluctuation needs of GPUs and adapting to the complex power consumption conditions of computing centers.
Capital has always been keen, and sodium-ion batteries at the forefront are being pursued by top-tier capital from all sectors. According to incomplete statistics from the Guangdong Battery Industry Association, in 2025, a total of 14 companies in the sodium-ion battery industry chain completed 15 rounds of financing, with a total financing amount exceeding 1 billion RMB. This covers anode and cathode materials, battery cells, electrolyte materials, energy storage systems, and other segments.
Since 2026, more than 10 companies in the sodium-ion battery industry chain have completed financing. Multiple enterprises such as Yingna New Energy, Qingna Technology, and Jiana Energy have successively completed new rounds of financing, with local state-owned capital, industrial capital, and financial investments entering the market one after another. Even Indonesia's Winmar Holdings made a $100 million strategic investment in China Sodium-Ion Battery Group (CNAE Power), indicating that overseas capital is beginning to bet on China's sodium-ion battery track.
Game at the Forefront: Global Shipments Expected to Reach 600GW by 2030, CATL's Capacity Planning at 200GWH
In the development of the sodium-ion battery industry, CATL plays the role of "standard setter" and "industry leader."
In July 2021, CATL released its first-generation sodium-ion battery. In December 2025, it proposed "Sodium and Lithium Shining Together." On April 21, 2026, at the Super Technology Day, CATL announced that it has overcome four major industry challenges: extreme water control, hard carbon gas generation, aluminum foil bonding, and scaled mass production of self-generated anodes, solving hundreds of engineering problems, making the mass production of sodium-ion batteries highly anticipated. Also in April, the company signed a three-year 60 GWh sodium-ion battery energy storage strategic cooperation order with Highstar, a leading energy storage enterprise, setting a global record for the scale of sodium-ion battery energy storage orders and marking the official entry of sodium-ion batteries into the GWh-level large-scale supply cycle.
On June 22, CATL held a 2026 energy storage new product launch conference in Munich, Germany, releasing the brand-new Tianheng sodium-ion energy storage system. The event demonstrated the all-scenario adaptability of the Tianheng sodium-ion energy storage system: it can achieve up to 15,000 charge and discharge cycles under 25°C conditions; according to the 70% SOH (State of Health) standard, the entire system can have a service life of 25-30 years, bringing long-term returns to energy storage projects; it can still maintain over 92% capacity in a -20°C environment; and its cycle life still exceeds 10,000 times in a 45°C environment. Equipped with CATL's dipolar wide-temperature technology, it can dynamically adapt to environmental changes.
According to CATL, breakthroughs in mass production technology and manufacturing consistency technology have significantly improved first-pass yield, with costs 10%-20% lower than the industry average. In terms of capacity layout, the company has invested 650 million euros to expand sodium-ion battery capacity at its Fuding production base, adding an annual capacity of 40 GWh; the Shandong Jining factory plans to add 160 GWh of sodium-ion battery capacity. Currently, all mass production lines have been put into operation and are running normally, providing a stable manufacturing foundation for large-scale commercial deployment.
CATL further provided a commercialization timetable. In the Chinese market, the first batch of sodium-ion battery solutions will be delivered to customers starting in September 2026, with an expected shipment volume of 1 GWh by the end of 2026. In the global market, formal deliveries will begin in June 2027.
From the timeline perspective, CATL's strategic layout in the field of sodium-ion batteries has reached the mid-game and is approaching the harvest node.
Companies led by CATL are vigorously promoting the sodium-ion battery industry against a backdrop where China's lithium resources are mostly dependent on imports, lacking sufficient supply chain stability. In contrast, sodium salt resources are abundant and widely distributed, with a more decentralized supply chain. Whether from the perspective of reducing reliance on critical minerals, enhancing energy security, mitigating the impact of geopolitical risks, or saving costs, promoting the transition of some application scenarios from LFP to sodium-ion batteries in the future will be an important national policy direction.
Morgan Stanley believes that sodium-ion batteries do not need to rely on critical mineral resources such as lithium, copper, and graphite, and their manufacturing costs are expected to be 30% to 40% lower than those of LFP batteries. At the same time, by using lower-priced aluminum foil instead of copper foil as the current collector, and using electrolytes that can maintain fluidity in low-temperature environments, they will have obvious advantages in cold regions. Data shows that in extremely cold environments, the capacity of LFP batteries usually drops by about 50%, while sodium-ion batteries can still maintain over 90% of their capacity.
Today, the powerful charge of sodium-ion batteries towards lithium-sodium equalization relies entirely on technological breakthroughs.
On June 4, at the "Research and Exchange Activity on Technology and Application of Sodium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Industry" hosted by the MIIT, industry enterprises and experts expressed that as the material, manufacturing, system, and application ends mature simultaneously, sodium-ion batteries are accelerating their transition from demonstration verification to large-scale application. Taking the technological iteration at the material end as an example, Ronbay Technology's third-generation sodium iron pyrophosphate (NFPP) cathode material, through microstructure optimization and process upgrading, has broken through a cycle life of 15,000 times, adapting to long-cycle energy storage scenarios. A relevant person in charge at Xingchu Shiji (Xingchu Energy) told the media that, assuming the price of lithium carbonate is 150,000 RMB/ton, the cost of sodium-ion batteries is expected to approach that of lithium-ion batteries by 2028, with the cost reduction path relying on the triple logic of scale, yield rate, and material iteration.
The breakthrough of technological challenges one by one will accelerate the breakthrough of sodium-ion batteries. A research report by China Galaxy Securities estimates that from 2026 to 2028, the shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries will reach 25 GWh, 92 GWh, and 221 GWh respectively, with year-on-year growth of 188%, 263%, and 140%, and is expected to exceed 600 GWh by 2030.
The Unstoppable Momentum of Sodium-Ion Batteries: Global Industry Chain Investment Expected to Reach $800 Billion by 2035
It is foreseeable that the parallel development of lithium and sodium will be the new ecology for the future development of the battery industry.
Wang Lei, General Manager of the Experimental Testing Center of Highstar, stated that the company is promoting the large-scale application of sodium-ion battery energy storage, building a demonstration project for a lithium-sodium integrated energy storage power station, with the first batch of projects to be implemented and landed within 2026. Xingchu Shiji (Xingchu Energy) began to layout sodium-ion batteries in 2021. According to disclosures, the company currently has a large number of orders shipped and delivered in the fields of energy storage and start-stop systems, and it is expected to sign a total of over 200 MWh of orders in 2026.
Robin Zeng stated at the 2026 Summer Davos Forum: "At present, there are always various difficulties in lithium mining. This year, we have achieved the mass production of sodium-ion batteries for energy storage. To break free from the reliance on lithium resources, it will take another 3 to 5 years to increase the annual production capacity to over 100 GWh, which will be sufficient to support the power supporting needs of global data centers at that time."
From the current situation, CATL's goal is highly feasible. In April, the company exhibited a dedicated sodium-ion battery for energy storage, with a product capacity of over 300Ah, an energy conversion efficiency of 97%, and a cycle life of over 15,000 times. With these competitive advantages, this sodium-ion energy storage product can comprehensively cover 2-8 hour large-scale energy storage and AIDC energy storage application scenarios. The product adopts a platform design with the same shell as the company's existing 587Ah lithium battery, is highly compatible with the existing industry chain, effectively reduces adaptation costs, and significantly shortens the time from product to deployed power stations.
Another industry leader, BYD, released news in February that its sodium-ion battery R&D is in the development stage of the third-generation product technology platform. Through high-stability polyanionic system material design and technological innovation in the electrochemical system, it has solved technical problems such as sodium precipitation and high temperature, and developed a sodium-ion battery product with 10,000 cycles. The mass production node will be determined according to actual market and customer needs.
In addition, multiple companies are rushing to invest in sodium-ion battery industry chain assets. On July 30, Ronbay Technology announced that it signed an investment agreement for a project with an annual output of 300,000 tons of sodium-ion battery cathode materials, with a total investment of about 4.723 billion RMB, planned to be constructed in three phases. The company is also taking this opportunity to gradually transform.
Morgan Stanley believes that what sodium-ion batteries bring is not just a new technology, but an infrastructure upgrade cycle covering the entire industry chain. From public utilities and grid operators to energy storage system (ESS) integrators, logistics and transportation enterprises, and equipment manufacturers, all will benefit from this round of industrial transformation. As the technology moves from demonstration projects to industrial deployment, by 2035, the global sodium-ion battery industry chain is expected to generate about $800 billion in new investments.
Specifically, investments in the energy storage field will be about $360 billion, accounting for 45%; manufacturing capacity investments will be about $135 billion, accounting for 17%, covering gigafactories, electrode production lines, cell assembly, etc.; supply chain and raw material investments will be about $115 billion, accounting for 14%, covering sodium carbonate, Prussian blue analogues, polyanionic materials, cathode processing, hard carbon anodes, separators, and electrolytes; logistics fleet investments will be about $100 billion, accounting for 12%; and power and grid infrastructure investments will be about $90 billion, accounting for 11%, including substations, switchgear, transmission reinforcement, and grid connection facilities.
In this grand narrative surrounding sodium-ion batteries, the original pattern and landscape of the global new energy industry may be rewritten, or even subverted.
In the upcoming boom in sodium-ion battery construction, China has seized the strategic initiative. Currently, China dominates the global sodium-ion battery industry. According to the International Energy Agency, almost all of the world's sodium-ion battery manufacturing capacity is currently concentrated in China. If both built and announced factories are included in the statistics, this capacity share will exceed 95% by 2030.