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In September 2026, the combined output of power and energy storage batteries in China reached 237.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 57.3%, setting a new historical high for monthly production.
During the same period, the installed capacity reached 87.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%.
Recent fluctuations in lithium carbonate prices objectively reflect that upcoming demand will face certain challenges.
Reports indicate that battery production schedules for December will decline month-on-month, with further drops expected from January to March, primarily based on the comparison of current production and sales trends.
Observing the price of lithium carbonate reveals some telling signs!
Part 1: Domestic Demand and Export Overview
The sales structure and production structure of power batteries are more closely aligned. Considering the time cycle, this can reflect the actual demand.
In September, the sales volume of power and energy storage batteries reached 222.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 52.0%.
◎ Power battery sales reached 149.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 35.0%;
◎ Energy storage battery sales reached 73.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 104.4%.
The difference in growth rates is quite obvious, with energy storage growing at nearly three times the rate of power batteries.
Cumulatively from January to September, energy storage battery sales reached 595.4 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 111.8%. Its share has risen from about 30% in the same period last year to 35.4%.
The high growth in battery production is largely driven by a substantial increase from energy storage.
In September, the domestic installed capacity of power batteries was 87.2 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%, which is significantly lower than the 57.3% growth in production. A large portion of the production increment flowed into energy storage.
◎ In September, LFP battery installations reached 74.5 GWh, accounting for 85.5%, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%;
◎ Ternary battery installations reached 12.3 GWh, accounting for 14.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%.
Cumulatively from January to September, LFP accounted for 82.8% of installations, while ternary accounted for 17.0%. The share of ternary batteries has been compressed to less than 20%, and it still shows negative year-on-year growth.
The implication for the upstream sector is very direct: the demand elasticity for LFP cathode materials and LFP electrolyte is far greater than that of the ternary supply chain. Estimates of material demand in September also confirm this, with LFP material demand reaching 506,000 tons, more than seven times that of ternary materials (70,000 tons).
In September, exports of power and energy storage batteries reached 44.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 64.5%. The growth rate is higher than the overall sales volume (52.0%), and exports accounted for 19.7% of the monthly sales.
◎ Power battery exports reached 28.4 GWh in September, a year-on-year increase of 60.9%;
◎ Energy storage battery exports reached 15.6 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 71.4%.
Cumulative exports from January to September reached 302.9 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 51.6%, accounting for 18.0% of cumulative sales. Exports are becoming a second channel for capacity digestion.
In September, energy storage exports decreased by 11.9% month-on-month, while power battery exports increased by 14.9% month-on-month.
Part 2: Analysis of Battery Supplier Landscape and Installations
In September, a total of 31 power battery companies achieved installation matching, which is 4 fewer than the same period last year. Cumulatively from January to September, there were 41 companies, 9 fewer than the same period last year, indicating a decreasing number of players.
Regarding market concentration:
◎ In September, the top 2 companies accounted for 53.8 GWh in installations, representing 61.7%;
◎ The top 5 companies reached 69.7 GWh, accounting for 80.0%;
◎ The top 10 companies reached 82.1 GWh, accounting for 94.2%.
◎ CATL's installations in September reached 35.49 GWh (40.9%), and BYD's reached 18.29 GWh (21.1%), with the two combined accounting for over 60%.
◎ CALB, EVE Energy, and Gotion High-tech follow them, with market shares all in the 5%-7% range.
Breaking down the data by commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles provides further insights.
◎ In the passenger vehicle segment, Sunwoda has rapidly risen to the fifth position after receiving support.
◎ Demand for commercial vehicles has increased rapidly this year, with CATL's commercial vehicle demand already exceeding one-third of its passenger vehicle demand.
The rankings for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are also meaningful.
◎ In the PHEV ranking, the gap between BYD and CATL is very small, and other companies could quickly catch up with a strong push!
◎ For BEV products, cost still accounts for the largest proportion.
Based on the September production estimates, the demand for key materials is roughly as follows: 70,000 tons of ternary materials, 506,000 tons of LFP materials, 333,000 tons of anode materials, 4.76 billion square meters of separator, 31,000 tons of ternary electrolyte, and 304,000 tons of LFP electrolyte.
Cumulatively from January to September, LFP materials reached 3.808 million tons, anode materials 2.566 million tons, and separators 36.66 billion square meters. The volume of LFP-based materials is already 6 to 10 times that of ternary-based materials.
Summary
From a trend perspective, September represents a periodic high point. The subsequent trend shows a tendency to continue climbing, but further upward movement is constrained by the impact of the battery consumption tax and export tax rebates.