(By Zhou Deqing, Kegong Liliang)
Within 29 days, LandSpace Technology completed two "one-rocket-ten-satellite" missions.
Just recently, at 19:40 on October 14, the Zhuque-2 improved Y4 launch vehicle of LandSpace Technology lifted off from the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Pilot Zone, sending 8 satellites of Adaspace and the Lanta Intelligent Optical Transmission 03 and 04 satellites into their predetermined orbits. The 10 satellites entering orbit in this mission are mainly aimed at meeting the demands for space computing power and high-performance satellite internet, carrying out related key technology tests and verifications.
Yet on September 15, the Zhuque-2 improved Y7 had just sent 10 satellites of the Qianfan constellation into their predetermined orbits. The two missions were separated by a mere 29 days, which even included the National Day holiday.
Although both missions were "one-rocket-ten-satellite" launches, the clients served and the satellite missions differed. The previous one was mainly aimed at the networking of a large constellation, while this mission also required coordinating the satellite rideshare demands of different enterprises.
For commercial rocket companies, launching multiple satellites on a single rocket is nothing new. Compared to how many satellites are sent up at once, what is more worthy of attention is whether they can continuously complete launch missions for different clients within a relatively short period.
This marks the 10th flight of the Zhuque-2 series rocket. Since May this year, the improved Zhuque-2 has executed 4 missions. Behind the increased launch frequency is not only the acceleration of rocket manufacturing but also the coordination of multiple links, including satellite-rocket adaptation, final assembly and testing, and launch site support.
In the past, commercial rocket launches were mostly organized around specific missions, with rocket production, testing, and launch windows coordinated only after the client was confirmed. This model can meet customized demands, but each mission requires a massive investment of coordination resources, and it is also difficult for clients to determine their space entry time in advance.
As commercial space demands such as satellite internet and space computing power grow, launch services face new requirements: not only must satellites be sent into space, but launch capacity must also be provided continuously and reliably, giving different clients the opportunity to share a single rocket and arrange their respective satellite development and delivery schedules in advance.
Zhou Zhou from ZeroG Lab once proposed a vision to Kegong Liliang: if future rocket launches become as frequent as flight schedules, and satellites can enter space as conveniently as ridesharing, commercial spaceflight might usher in more unexpected applications, much like the early AI industry.
As domestic commercial rocket launches evolve from a "project-based" model to a "scheduled" model, rocket launches will no longer be arranged entirely around single projects. Instead, stable and predictable launch windows will gradually take shape, allowing different clients to purchase launch capacity on demand. This vision might not be far off.
Two Launches in 29 Days: A Test of Delivery Capability
On September 15, the previous Zhuque-2 improved Y7 of LandSpace Technology executed the networking mission for the Qianfan constellation. This marked the first time a Chinese private commercial spaceflight enterprise undertook a large-scale networking mission for a massive satellite internet constellation.
This Y4 mission, however, served two clients, with differences in satellite purposes, weight, and dimensions. The 8 satellites from Adaspace mainly verify technologies such as high-performance computing, inter-satellite and satellite-to-ground laser communication, and radiation heat dissipation; the two test satellites from Lanta Intelligent focus on verifying laser data transmission, onboard processing, and energy systems.
Compared with the previous networking mission, Y4 required coordinating the technical requirements of different clients, loading satellites of different configurations into the same fairing, and completing interface adaptation and orderly separation.
Ma Haijing from LandSpace Technology introduced that this mission adopted a square load-bearing cylinder layout, installing satellites on various surfaces of the cylinder, and compatible with both side-mounted configurations on the cylinder and stacked states of large flat-panel satellites. This means that the installation positions, separation sequence, and flight procedures of the satellites need to be designed together to avoid mutual interference.
This adaptation capability has clear commercial applications. When the same rocket model can undertake missions for different clients, rocket companies have the opportunity to expand their order sources and utilize existing sites, equipment, and personnel to complete more deliveries. For clients, it also increases the choices for matching suitable launch capacity.
However, loading different satellites into the same rocket is only the first step in completing a rideshare. Compared to technical adaptation, what is more complex is the schedule coordination among different clients. Especially in multi-client rideshare missions, participating enterprises often have significant differences in engineering experience, technical preparation, and administrative procedures.
Commercial space expert Gao Tianwei told Kegong Liliang that networking missions for large constellations are usually participated in by enterprises with richer engineering experience. The technical status of satellites, administrative preparation, and collaboration processes with rocket companies are relatively mature. Rideshare missions, on the other hand, face a wider variety of clients. There are differences in R&D progress and engineering experience among various enterprises, which increases the difficulty of coordination.
Gao Tianwei mentioned that some start-ups are still unfamiliar with the relevant processes, "rocket companies even have to teach satellite companies how to handle the procedures." Multi-client launches require coordinating the technical preparation and procedural progress of various enterprises to the same launch window. Even if the rocket is ready for launch, the rideshare satellites must also be ready at the same time for the mission to proceed as planned. However, at present, there is a trend of "implicit relaxation" in the process. Practitioners generally feel that leading enterprises have entered a rhythm of "if this launch goes well, the next one will be approved."
In addition to coordinating clients' preparation schedules, rocket companies themselves also need to possess the capability to continuously execute missions.
Ma Haijing attributed the connection of two missions within 29 days to "parallel preparation of multiple missions, rolling production organization, and standardized testing and launch processes." This shows that LandSpace Technology does not wait for the previous rocket to be launched before starting the next mission. Instead, the production, testing, and launch preparations for different flights are advanced synchronously, reducing waiting times and resource idleness between missions.
The short interval between Y4 and Y7 provides a specific sample for observing this change in commercial spaceflight.
In the past, rocket launches were mostly organized around single projects. After the client was confirmed, rocket production, testing, and launch windows were coordinated step by step. As the number of launches increases and processes become increasingly standardized, rocket companies are beginning to possess the capability to continuously undertake different missions. Commercial launches also have the opportunity to transform from one-off engineering projects into more stable and predictable transportation services.
This predictable transportation service is precisely the competitive advantage that SpaceX has already established. Through a series of missions, SpaceX has gradually productized rideshare launches. Clients can check launch capacity and quotes on the official website by orbit, satellite weight, and launch time. There is no need to organize a dedicated launch mission from scratch every time.
Observing from this point, the significance of Zhuque-2 completing two different types of launches within 29 days becomes even more apparent. Although Chinese commercial rockets still have a gap with SpaceX's mature scheduled operations, LandSpace Technology has begun to demonstrate the delivery capability of continuously undertaking different clients and different missions. The competition in China's commercial spaceflight is also shifting from proving whether a rocket can successfully enter orbit to whether it can continuously and stably send clients into space.
More importantly, the beneficiaries of this change are not only rocket companies. When launches are no longer a scarce opportunity that requires long-term waiting, but a service that can be planned in advance and purchased on demand, satellite enterprises will have the conditions to accelerate technology verification and product iteration. More commercial projects that were previously difficult to carry out due to launch costs and time constraints will also have the opportunity to truly enter space.
Rideshare Gives Small Enterprises an Opportunity to Obtain an On-Orbit Track Record
There are already multiple organizational methods for rideshare launches. One type is to first satisfy the mission of the primary client and then use the remaining capacity to carry other satellites; the other type is for multiple clients to share a single rocket. For projects with a small number of satellites and lighter weights, they can obtain the opportunity to enter space by sharing costs, without having to bear the investment of a full rocket launch alone. The national team prioritizes the success of the primary mission, giving spare slots to scientific research within the system. Adding one more satellite increases the collision risk, so they will not increase risks for profit. Commercial space "rideshare" gives these enterprises an opportunity.
The value of this service to start-ups is especially reflected in helping them obtain their first on-orbit track record. Space clients attach extreme importance to reliability. Even if start-up team members have participated in the development of other models in the past, it cannot directly prove that the new company's products have been verified. Enterprises need to present their own on-orbit operation results to further win client trust.
Zhou Zhou told Kegong Liliang: "Without flights, there are no clients. Without clients, there is even less money for flights. This cycle is the norm for small and medium-sized companies in commercial spaceflight."
For small and medium-sized enterprises, the difficulty often lies not just in building the product, but in finding the opportunity to send the product into space.
On the one hand, the cost of independently purchasing rocket capacity and developing satellites is too high for start-ups to bear; on the other hand, even if they are willing to pay for verification themselves, they may not necessarily find suitable satellite platforms and launch windows. Limited launch opportunities usually prioritize meeting already confirmed mission demands. Small and medium-sized enterprises that have not yet obtained orders and on-orbit track records find it difficult to squeeze into this supply chain.
ZeroG Lab, without a clear user, once paid out of its own pocket to load its payload onto another enterprise's satellite. The other party's satellite undertook its own computing power tasks, while ZeroG Lab utilized its remaining rideshare conditions to complete product verification.
This kind of rideshare verification is not exactly the same as multiple satellites sharing a single rocket, but both solve similar problems: allowing small and medium-sized enterprises to obtain real on-orbit data with lower investment.
For enterprises that only need to test a certain component or single technology, as launches gradually become scheduled, in addition to purchasing full-satellite launch capacity, they also have the opportunity to complete verification by borrowing other enterprises' satellite platforms, further reducing investment.
Zhou Zhou gave an example: if a chip company only wants to observe whether a component can operate normally in a space radiation environment, arranging such verification in the past might be quite troublesome. If future launches can achieve scheduled operations, enterprises will have more opportunities to load components onto other companies' satellites, without having to develop a satellite and purchase full rocket capacity for a single experiment.
The easier it is to obtain launch opportunities, the more conditions enterprises have to repeatedly verify and refine designs, and clients can also judge product performance earlier. Rideshare thus connects launch services with the commercialization process of downstream products.
SpaceX's rideshare service has already turned some arrangements into public products: sun-synchronous orbit missions occur approximately every four months. When a client's payload is delayed, the paid funds can be used to rebook subsequent missions, with a rebooking fee paid. The launch schedule and delay handling methods are published simultaneously, allowing clients to arrange R&D and delivery accordingly.
Gao Tianwei summarized the focus of satellite clients as reliability, price, and time. He believes that launching regularly to a specific target orbit is indeed more convenient for clients; however, rocket companies need to gather satellites that are ready on time, while also facing the strong binding relationship between satellite and rocket arrangements in the mission. "It's not like a bus where whoever arrives first gets on. The passenger and the bus are bound together from the moment the contract is signed; changing the bus is almost like starting over." Temporary adjustments to the rideshare objects may also involve technical reviews and procedural changes.
Therefore, scheduled operations not only require rocket companies to be able to launch on time, but also require the formation of a more stable collaboration mechanism among clients, satellite platforms, and launch missions.
Frequent Rocket Launches Also Require a Viable Cost Calculation
However, from completing two launches within 29 days to truly establishing fixed schedules, Chinese commercial rockets still have a cost account to calculate.
Currently, the improved Zhuque-2 is still an expendable rocket. Through parallel production, standardized testing, and launch process optimization, LandSpace Technology can shorten the interval between different missions, but each launch still requires the remanufacturing of main equipment such as the rocket body and engines.
This brings new pressure to commercial rocket enterprises. The higher the launch frequency, the more new rockets need to be delivered. Enterprises must build capacity in advance, reserve components, and maintain a production team of a certain scale. While the turnover efficiency of the launch site has improved, the manufacturing end requires continuous investment of more resources.
More complexly, this capacity investment also faces the uncertainty brought by reusable technology.
Gao Tianwei pointed out that rocket enterprises currently need to meet the manufacturing demands of expendable launches, and in the future, they hope to reduce repeated manufacturing through reuse. If they expand factories and increase personnel on a large scale according to current launch demands, capacity redundancy may occur after reuse matures in the future. The current high-frequency launches are supported by the engine inventory accumulated during the backlog period. The inventory is consumed quickly, and the subsequent pace may slow down; however, if production is arranged in advance according to the manufacturing demands after reuse, it may not be able to meet the current continuously growing launch missions.
For rocket enterprises, this is actually a matter of investment timing. Expanding capacity can improve current delivery capabilities, but it also means an increase in long-term fixed costs. When reusable technology will mature and how much new rocket manufacturing investment it can save still require more actual flight verification.
LandSpace Technology is trying to solve this problem through Zhuque-3. On August 19 this year, Zhuque-3 Y2 completed orbit insertion and first-stage land recovery, becoming China's first launch vehicle to successfully enter orbit and achieve land recovery. Unlike the improved Zhuque-2, Zhuque-3 considered reusability from the very beginning of its design, hoping to reduce the investment of remanufacturing rockets for each launch by recovering the first stage.
This part of the cost is not low. Xinhua News Agency previously cited the person in charge of the model development, introducing that under normal circumstances, the cost of the rocket's first stage accounts for about 70% of the entire rocket, while the cost of liquid oxygen and methane fuel only accounts for 1% to 3% of the launch cost. Therefore, compared to reducing fuel consumption, reusing the expensive rocket body and engines multiple times is more meaningful for reducing launch costs.
However, successful recovery cannot be directly counted as cost savings. After the rocket lands, it needs to undergo inspection, maintenance, and re-flight verification. How many times it can actually be reused and how long the interval between two flights needs to be will both affect its economics. If maintenance costs are too high, or the turnaround time is too long, the cost advantage brought by reuse will also be weakened.
Even if rockets can be launched at lower costs and higher frequencies, commercial problems are not all solved.
For rideshare missions, rocket companies also need to find enough clients who can deliver satellites on time. The denser the launch window arrangements, the more enterprises need continuous orders to fill the capacity. If the number of satellites is insufficient, or clients frequently delay, fixed schedules may instead increase operating costs.
In other words, a reduction in manufacturing costs does not mean that every launch schedule can be profitable. Enterprises also need to consider capacity utilization rate, client delivery progress, and launch frequency together to truly reduce the cost for clients to purchase launch services.
From the current product layout of LandSpace Technology, Zhuque-2 and Zhuque-3 undertake different tasks. The former improves the delivery efficiency of existing rockets through continuous launches and multi-client adaptation; the latter needs further verification on whether reuse can reduce manufacturing investment and support more intensive launch demands.
Completing two launches in 29 days shows that Chinese commercial rockets are improving their mission organization and continuous delivery capabilities. However, moving from a project-based model to a scheduled model is not enough just by shortening launch intervals. Rocket companies need stable orders, controllable costs, and a manufacturing and testing/launch system that can support continuous launches.
This also responds to the vision proposed at the beginning of the article: whether satellite enterprises can book capacity in advance like passengers buying airline tickets, without having to wait for launch opportunities individually for every on-orbit experiment. At least for now, China's commercial spaceflight is still standing between the project-based model and the scheduled model.
Next, LandSpace Technology plans to advance the first reuse flight of Zhuque-3 in the fourth quarter. Compared to completing two launches within 29 days, whether the rocket can be reused and whether reuse can further reduce costs will be another test for commercial spaceflight to move towards scheduled operations.