On August 10, Unitree Robotics opened its subscription on the STAR Market, which means the A-share market will welcome the "first humanoid robot stock".
The issue price of Unitree was set at 150.8 RMB. Based on a total share capital of 404.5 million shares, the market capitalization is approximately 61 billion RMB. Statistics show that a total of 9.7846 million accounts participated in the online IPO subscription for Unitree. Media calculations indicate that, based on the average first-day gain on the STAR Market since 2026, and market expectations that Unitree's valuation could subsequently surge to 200 billion RMB, the profit for retail investors winning one lot of Unitree shares could reach 200,000 to 350,000 RMB.
On the evening of August 10, Unitree Robotics issued an announcement stating that after the clawback mechanism was triggered, the final offline issuance volume was 22.65 million shares, and the final winning rate was approximately 0.018%, far lower than the 0.47% of CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies).
Behind the market's enthusiastic pursuit of Unitree also lies a strong bullish sentiment on the humanoid robot sector. Industry insiders believe that the IPO of Unitree Robotics is expected to catalyze the embodied AI sector, particularly the humanoid robot industry chain, and present opportunities for valuation reshaping.
Through this article, "Manufacturing Frontier" elaborates on the definition, classification, development history, industry chain, relevant policies, representative companies, and market prospects of humanoid robots. To understand humanoid robots, this single article is all you need!
"Manufacturing Frontier" has compiled a series of reports on humanoid robots; please refer to the end of the article for download details.
Definition
A humanoid robot is a bionic robot that refers to robots with shapes and sizes similar to the human body, capable of imitating human movements, expressions, interactions, and actions, and possessing a certain degree of cognitive and decision-making intelligence. Humanoid robots are built on a multidisciplinary foundation, integrating advanced technologies such as AI (Artificial Intelligence), high-end manufacturing, and new materials to achieve anthropomorphic functions. They offer more universal environmental adaptability, more diversified task operations, and more friendly human-computer interaction. They are expected to become disruptive products following computers, smartphones, and NEVs (New Energy Vehicles), profoundly transforming human production and lifestyles, and serving as an important symbol of a country's high-tech strength and development level.
Compared to other robots, humanoid robots have higher comprehensive capability requirements for intelligent perception, motion control, intelligent decision-making, and human-computer interaction, specifically including:
1. Intelligent Perception: Requires the integration of various sensors to perceive unstructured scenarios and respond accordingly to different situations.
2. Motion Control: Requires humanoid robots to possess high precision and sensitivity, as well as excellent stability and balance control capabilities, to accurately imitate human actions such as walking, running, and grasping, and to respond in real-time to inputs from various sensors and environmental changes.
3. Intelligent Decision-Making: Through AI technology, it can autonomously make optimal decisions based on information such as environment, tasks, and goals to achieve functions like autonomous navigation, task execution, and human-computer interaction. This requires efficient algorithms and powerful computing capabilities to process massive amounts of information and data.
4. Human-Computer Interaction: Requires the recognition and processing of natural language so that the robot can understand user commands, questions, or instructions. It also requires emotion recognition technology to identify users' emotional states and provide a more humanized interactive experience. In addition, there are high requirements for gesture and action recognition, as well as multimodal interaction.
Classification
Based on their morphology, humanoid robots can be classified into wheeled humanoid robots, legged humanoid robots, and all-around humanoid robots. The product introductions for each type are as follows:
Development History
From Leonardo da Vinci drawing the world's first humanoid robot manuscript in the 15th century, to Waseda University developing the world's first humanoid robot WABOT-1 in 1973, and then to Tesla's Optimus sparking the exploration of the industrialization and commercialization of humanoid robots, the humanoid robot industry has transitioned from the nascent conceptual stage to the early stage of industrial implementation.
The concept of humanoid robots germinated earlier overseas, primarily driven by technology orientation. Compared to overseas, domestic development focuses more on application breakthroughs. Given the continuous accumulation and breakthroughs in advanced technologies such as AI, high-end manufacturing, and new materials in China, 2023 marked the period of concentrated explosion for domestic humanoid robots. A large number of manufacturers launched their own humanoid robot products and attempted to apply them in scenarios such as services and automobiles, gradually exploring commercial implementation.
Relevant Policies
Currently, at the national level, led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), strategic goals for market development have been clarified for the humanoid robot industry. By 2025, complete machine products will achieve mass production, and by 2027, the industry will achieve scaled development, deeply integrating into the real economy and promoting the scaled implementation of humanoid robot products.
Local governments in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and other cities have actively followed up, successively introducing relevant policies for humanoid robot development, formulating development paths and corresponding safeguard measures to promote innovative development of the humanoid robot industry, achieve industrial clustering, and seize the opportunities for humanoid robot industrialization.
Industry Chain Analysis
The humanoid robot industry chain mainly consists of upstream components, midstream humanoid robot bodies, and downstream terminal applications. Currently, since humanoid robots have not yet achieved scaled commercial implementation in downstream terminal application fields, and the application of some core components in the humanoid robot field has not been fully verified, China's humanoid robot supply chain is still under continuous construction. As the humanoid robot innovation system is gradually established and continuous breakthroughs are made in a batch of key technologies such as the "brain, cerebellum, and limbs," China is expected to gradually form an efficient and reliable humanoid robot industry chain and supply chain system.
01. Analysis of Upstream Core Components
The upstream of humanoid robots includes hardware parts such as reducers, motors, lead screws, controllers, and sensors, as well as software system parts. Throughout the entire industry chain, in the long run, the most valuable part lies in the software, meaning those who can independently develop or master core technologies such as motion control and AI algorithms will control the hub and brain of humanoid robots, and to some extent, are expected to lead the development direction and pace of humanoid robots at the technical level. From the current perspective, the core components with high value proportion and large incremental space mainly include sensors, reducers, motors, and lead screws.
1. Reducers: Reducers play the role of reducing motor speed and increasing output torque in humanoid robots, which is crucial for improving the torque output and motion accuracy of robot joints. Reducers enable motors to operate at high speeds while ensuring the smoothness and precision of joint movements. The main applications include RV reducers, harmonic reducers, and planetary reducers.
Domestic harmonic reducers have initially reached the international mainstream level in terms of performance and reliability, with the effect of domestic substitution being relatively obvious. Due to the complex product structure and technical processes of RV reducers, and the fact that core technologies have not been fully mastered, there is still a gap between domestic RV reducers and advanced foreign levels. Domestic planetary reducers mainly focus on mid-to-low-end application fields, and in the field of high-end precision planetary reducers, foreign manufacturers still occupy the main market share.
2. Motors: Provide power for humanoid robots, enabling the robot's joints and actuators to move. The performance of motors directly affects the movement speed, accuracy, stability, and efficiency of humanoid robots.
3. Lead Screws: Convert the rotational motion of the motor into linear motion, including trapezoidal lead screws, ball screws, and planetary roller screws. The application parts of lead screws in humanoid robots mainly include dexterous hands and linear actuators, which require precise linear motion to achieve fine operations and control.
4. Controllers: The controller is the "brain" of the humanoid robot, responsible for the robot's motion control and behavioral decision-making. It includes computers, control chips, and communication modules, and is usually independently developed by the body integration manufacturers. The quality of the controller can, to some extent, reflect the level of the manufacturer's core competitiveness, as it is equipped with many core software algorithms, which belong to the core competitiveness of the product.
5. Sensors: Sensors are key components for humanoid robots to perceive the external environment, enabling the robots to understand and respond to the physical world they are in. Sensors provide real-time feedback for control and execution, serving as a bridge between software control and hardware components, and are also key to realizing embodied AI.
The most widely used sensors in humanoid robots are torque sensors. Based on their functions, sensors are generally divided into internal sensors and external sensors. Internal sensors (in-body sensors) mainly measure the internal system state of the robot; external sensors (external environment detection sensors) are installed on robotic hands or mobile robots, mainly measuring the surrounding environment of the robot. Classified by detection methods, sensors can be divided into optical, mechanical, ultrasonic, resistive, semiconductor, capacitive, and pneumatic sensors. In Tesla's Optimus robot, there are 40 torque sensors and 3 vision sensors, with sensors accounting for as much as 19% of the overall value.
Foreign enterprises have a first-mover advantage, while Chinese companies are accelerating their catch-up. Benefiting from the catalysis of robot market demand, the number of entrants in China's six-axis force/torque sensor market has increased year by year in recent years. Domestic enterprises such as Wei Technology, Xinjingcheng, Yuli Instruments, Bluedot, and others have successively entered this field and secured a place in application fields such as robots, automobiles, and 3C. Overseas enterprises such as ATI and SCHUNK, as global leaders with years of accumulation, still maintain a clear leading advantage.
6. Power Batteries: Power batteries are key components that provide the required energy for humanoid robots, directly affecting the robot's performance, range, safety, and cost. The performance of power batteries determines the robot's operating time, work efficiency, and overall performance. Given the development of battery technology, especially the progress in lithium battery technology, the energy density, cycle life, and safety of power batteries are steadily improving. In the future, with the application of new materials and new technologies, such as solid-state batteries, the performance of power batteries is expected to be further enhanced, providing humanoid robots with longer range and higher safety.
CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) has a high market share, and domestic manufacturers have become the main force in the global lithium battery market. According to SNE Research data, globally, in terms of shipment volume from various battery manufacturers, CATL, LG Energy Solution, BYD, Panasonic, and Samsung SDI occupy the top five positions.
7. Actuators: Also known as drives, they are key components for the movement of humanoid robots, responsible for converting electrical energy into mechanical energy to drive the robot's joints and limbs to move. They usually consist of motors, reducers, encoders, servo drives, and control software, and are a key part affecting the robot's hardware cost and motion performance.
8. Bearings
Precision rolling bearings are key components of the robot execution system, playing an important role in the load capacity, rotation accuracy, operation smoothness, and repeat positioning accuracy of the robot reducer. Precision bearings feature lightweight design, high precision, good rotation accuracy, and reliability, meeting the stringent performance requirements of robot precision reducers. Robot bearings are generally installed in limited spaces and must be small in size and light in weight, that is, lightweight. At the same time, the robot's performance requirements of high load, high rotation accuracy, high operation smoothness, high positioning speed, high repeat positioning accuracy, long life, and high reliability require the supporting robot bearings to possess high load capacity, high precision, high rigidity, low friction torque, long life, and high reliability.
9. Software Algorithms
Humanoid robot software is mainly applied in two parts: first, the "brain" of the humanoid robot based on AI large models, mainly reflected in environmental perception, behavior control, and human-computer interaction; second, the "cerebellum" that controls the movement of the humanoid robot, mainly reflected in its motion control algorithms and network control system architecture. From the construction of the algorithm library, the construction of the motion control system and operating system to the underlying devices, the system architecture of the humanoid robot is as follows:
02. Analysis of Midstream Humanoid Robot Body Development
The design, manufacturing, and integration of the humanoid robot body are the core links of the industry chain and the key to the industrialization and commercialization of humanoid robots. Currently, the humanoid robot body industry is in the early stage of industrial development. The industry has reached a consensus on the strategic significance of the humanoid robot body, but the path for its large-scale commercial implementation has not yet been truly paved. The humanoid robot body industry is still in the exploration stage. From the selection of components, the development of software systems, the design of the body to the focus on scenarios, various humanoid robot solutions are continuously iterating and innovating, and the "0 to 1" inflection point of the humanoid robot industry is expected to arrive ahead of schedule.
Currently, market players in humanoid robot bodies can be roughly divided into four categories based on their original attributes: professional robot enterprises, NEV enterprises, internet enterprises, and research institutes and incubated enterprises. The representative enterprises for each type of humanoid robot are as follows:
03. Analysis of Downstream Application Scenarios
Based on application scenarios, humanoid robots can be divided into medical humanoid robots, military humanoid robots, educational humanoid robots, entertainment humanoid robots, service humanoid robots, industrial humanoid robots, and general-purpose humanoid robots. The introductions for each type are as follows:
1. Industrial Manufacturing Scenarios
- Demand: Human-robot collaboration to perform more flexible and dexterous operation tasks in the production and manufacturing environment, while also feeding back into the transformation of smart production lines in factories.
- Scenarios: Automobile manufacturing serves as the primary implementation scenario, with quality inspection and component assembly as clear demand scenarios. The factory environment is relatively controllable and has high scaling standards, which helps humanoid robots better train coordination control capabilities and optimize algorithms.
2. Extreme/Special Operation Scenarios
- Demand: Replace manual labor to execute tasks in dangerous/harsh environments, such as search and rescue, bomb disposal, and disaster response.
- Scenarios: Energy and chemical industry, disaster rescue, underwater/space, and military operations, etc. Technological improvements in related coordination control, intelligent analysis, and high-strength materials for humanoid robots.
3. Commercial and Home Service Scenarios
- Commercial Services:
- Demand: Human-robot interaction, consultation, guidance, reception, entertainment, education, etc.
- Scenarios: Commercial service scenarios such as retail fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), hotel and tourism, and educational services. Some segmented applications like exhibition explanation and scientific research education have been implemented, while the application in other scenarios still needs development.
- Home Services:
- Demand: An all-around home butler, taking on tasks such as companionship, housekeeping management, and education.
- Scenarios: Family companionship, housekeeping services, health care, etc. The overall interactivity and flexibility of humanoid robots are significantly improved, emotional analysis is more tailored to family scenarios, they adapt to various non-standardized scenarios, and social acceptance is greatly enhanced.
Most Chinese enterprises believe that the manufacturing industry can take the lead in truly achieving the commercial implementation of humanoid robots. The automobile manufacturing scenario is expected to be implemented first, with quality inspection and component assembly as clear demand scenarios. Ultimately, home service application scenarios will be realized.
Mainstream Manufacturers
Overview of Major Domestic and Foreign Robots
1X Technologies
1X Technologies, formerly known as Halodi Robotics, was founded in 2014 and is a Norwegian company focusing on the development of humanoid robots with high flexibility and scalability. The flagship product of 1X Technologies is EVE, a robot with two arms, two eyes, and a four-wheel chassis, capable of performing various tasks in different environments, such as patrolling, monitoring, and carrying. Currently, 1X Technologies is also developing a bipedal robot named NEO. Compared to EVE, it has a higher level of intelligence, featuring autonomous learning and AI navigation functions, and is expected to open for pre-order by the end of 2023.
Tesla
In 2021, Musk first announced the Tesla Bot plan, codenamed "Optimus," at the inaugural Tesla AI Day. The prototype was unveiled in 2022, and Tesla's strong entry accelerated the pace of domestic enterprises entering the market. In 2023, Tesla released a demonstration video of Optimus Gen 2, with further improvements in its mobility, balance, and perception capabilities. It can perform actions such as picking up an egg with two fingers, and the application of fingertip tactile sensors and foot force sensors has become a core highlight. Tesla's humanoid robot is currently undergoing practical testing and optimization at Tesla's automobile factories. At the Q4 2023 earnings call, Musk proposed achieving partial delivery of humanoid robots by 2025 and will continue to promote commercial implementation.
Boston Dynamics
Boston Dynamics was founded in 1992. It is an American engineering and robotics design company spun off from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and has served U.S. military agencies. The company was successively acquired by Google, SoftBank, and Hyundai Motor in 2013, 2017, and 2021, respectively. The commercialization of the robot dog Spot has shown initial results. In 2020, Spot was put on sale for $74,500, marking the beginning of initial commercialization attempts. Over 1,000 units of Spot have been sold to 35 countries, mainly applied in fields such as manufacturing, power and utilities, mining, and oil and gas. The bipedal robot Atlas is a leading representative of highly dynamic robots. Atlas made its debut in 2013, and its functions have developed rapidly. In 2017, Atlas learned to jump between stairs and perform backflips; in 2018, Atlas learned to run, capable of running while overcoming obstacles and jumping onto stairs; in2019, Atlas mastered "gymnastics" skills, able to continuously jump, roll, and do handstands; in 2023, Atlas demonstrated its hand dexterity (able to grasp and throw) in the latest video.
Agility Robotics
Agility Robotics was founded in 2015. It is an American company dedicated to manufacturing walking robots, and its current business focus is on warehouse tasks such as unloading trucks, moving boxes, and managing shelves. In 2016, Agility Robotics released a dynamic walking robot named Cassie, which can traverse rough terrain and overcome obstacles; in 2019, it launched the bipedal robot Digit. In 2020, Ford Motor Company received the first two Digit robots off the production line.
Xiaomi
Xiaomi launched the robot "Tie Da" (Iron Big), but due to high costs, it cannot be mass-produced yet. In August 2022, Xiaomi released CyberOne, the company's first full-size humanoid bionic robot. CyberOne is 177 cm tall, weighs 52 kg, and has 21 degrees of freedom (DOF). CyberOne is equipped with the Mi-Sense vision spatial system module, with depth information accuracy reaching 1% within 8 meters; it can recognize 85 types of environmental semantics and 45 types of human emotions across 6 categories. Lei Jun stated that Tie Da still needs a long time to learn and improve. Currently, the cost of a single robot is as high as 600,000 to 700,000 RMB, making mass production unfeasible for now.
UBTECH
UBTECH Robotics' humanoid robot products have undergone four iterations in five years. In 2016, UBTECH released a prototype of a bipedal humanoid service robot. After four iterations over five years, it launched its latest humanoid service robot product, Walker X, in 2021. Walker X is 130 cm tall, weighs 63 kg, and has 41 DOF. It can achieve adaptive, stable, and fast walking on complex terrains and possesses multimodal emotional interaction and humanoid empathetic expression capabilities. Xiong Youjun, CTO of UBTECH, stated that Walker is advancing commercial applications according to the plan, with the ultimate goal of entering households.
Fourier Intelligence
Fourier Intelligence is a leading domestic rehabilitation robot enterprise. Fourier launched its first general-purpose humanoid robot, GR-1, which will be mass-produced by the end of 2023. On July 6, Fourier Intelligence released the first general-purpose humanoid robot GR-1 at the 2023 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC). GR-1 is 165 cm tall, weighs 55 kg, and has up to 40 DOF across its entire body. Gu Jie, founder of Fourier, stated that GR-1 will be officially mass-produced and sold by the end of 2023.
Agibot
Agibot was founded in the Lingang New Area in February 2023. With the company mission of "creating infinite productivity with intelligent machines," it is an innovative enterprise dedicated to the integrated innovation of AI + robots to build a world-class leading embodied AI robot product and application ecosystem. The founding team includes multiple industry veterans, including "Zhihui Jun" (Peng Zhihui).
On August 18, 2023, Agibot released the Yuanzheng A1 (Expedition A1) humanoid robot. It is 170 cm tall, weighs 55 kg, and has a walking speed of >1.5 m/s, with a potential movement capability of >5 m/s. Degrees of freedom: 5 per leg (hip*3 + knee*1 + ankle*1)*2 + 4 per arm*2 + dexterous hand optional (under development). It is equipped with a self-developed M107 joint motor, with a peak torque density of 89 Nm/kg and a maximum joint torque of 360 Nm, adopting hollow wiring.
CloudMinds
CloudMinds Robotics was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Shanghai. Its main products include a cloud-based intelligent robot development platform and cloud-based humanoid service robots represented by Cloud Ginger. According to practical applications, they can be divided into multi-functional cloud robots for delivery, patrol and delivery, cleaning, vending, etc.; mainly used in life scenarios such as hotels, schools, supermarkets, and industrial parks.
iFLYTEK
At the 2023 iFLYTEK 1024 Global Developer Festival, the company released the Spark Cognitive Large Model V3.0, as well as a humanoid robot combining large models and embodied AI. Developed based on AIBOT, it possesses a series of advanced capabilities such as walking on complex terrains, object searching in open scenarios, and complex task decomposition. In the future, it will use humanoid robots as a driving force to promote the "vision-language-action" multimodal embodied large model, assisting in the cognitive upgrade of robots.
Market Analysis
The market size of the entire robotics industry continues to grow. According to the "China Robotics Industry Development Report (2022)" organized and compiled by the Chinese Institute of Electronics, the global robotics market size is expected to exceed 65 billion USD by 2024, a year-on-year growth of 12%; among which, the industrial robot market will reach 23 billion USD in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 10%; the service robot market will reach 29 billion USD, a year-on-year growth of 16%; and the special robot market will reach 14 billion USD, a year-on-year growth of 16.7%.
The growth rate of humanoid robots is expected to be significantly faster than the overall growth rate of the robotics industry. According to data from StratisticsMRC, the global humanoid robot market size was 1.5 billion USD in 2021 and is expected to reach 26.4 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 50.5% from 2021 to 2028. By field, Stratistics MRC expects the humanoid robots in the education and entertainment fields to have the fastest compound growth rate, while the healthcare field will occupy the largest market share. By region, Stratistics MRC expects the Asia-Pacific region to have the fastest compound growth rate, and the North American region to have the highest share.
Since 2023, investment enthusiasm in the humanoid robot market has surged, but it is basically in the early stage. Angel round and Series A enterprises, as well as core components, are the hotspots of investment; regionally, Guangdong ranks first, followed by Shanghai and Jiangsu; in terms of investing enterprises, it is still dominated by investment institutions.
According to preliminary statistics from M2 Consulting, there are approximately 150 humanoid robot-related enterprises nationwide, of which 55 are concentrated in Guangdong Province, 16 in Beijing, 15 in Jiangsu, and 12 in Shanghai, with relatively few distributed in other regions.