This article is written based on publicly available materials and is for information exchange purposes only; it does not constitute any investment advice.
In our previous research on the bus industry, we left a thought-provoking question: Where is the next industry capable of seizing major trend opportunities with greater growth potential? At that time, we pointed out that the electrification wave and overseas expansion journey of the heavy truck industry are almost replicating the success trajectory of the bus industry.
The two industries share striking similarities but also possess fundamental differences:
1) Difference in market space magnitude. Although the per-unit value of heavy trucks is lower than that of buses, their shipment volume is significantly higher. Global annual shipments remain stable in the range of 2-2.5 million units. This makes the overall scale of the heavy truck industry significantly larger than that of the bus market, approximately 4 times the size of the bus market. The current global market size has reached CNY 1.6 trillion, and driven by mining trucks and other segments, it is expected to break through the CNY 2 trillion mark in the future.
2) Time lag in development stages. Like the bus industry, the heavy truck industry has completed domestic substitution, solidified its competitive landscape, and conducted initial export exploration. However, in terms of internationalization progress, heavy trucks clearly lag behind buses. Yutong has already topped the global rankings, while China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) still has a long way to go to achieve this goal.
Judging comprehensively from the dimensions of market space and development progress, the growth attributes of the heavy truck industry will undoubtedly be significantly higher than those of the bus industry. So, can heavy trucks withstand pressure and replicate the successful path of the bus industry?
The ultimate strategic goal of Chinese heavy truck enterprises is to fully replicate the successful path taken by Yutong Bus in the European new energy market, namely moving from technology introduction to independent innovation, and finally leveraging the generational advantage of new energy technology to counterattack the world's highest-value markets.
Mirroring the bus industry, we performed a pixel-level mapping for heavy trucks to derive an answer. For CNHTC:
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- 2009 was the inaugural year of its complete form; the peak in domestic sales in 2021 marked the conclusion of the first tailwind. The stock price rose from CNY 9 (adjusted for splits/dividends, same below) to a high of CNY 36, achieving a 3x increase;
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- 2021-2022 saw cyclical adjustments, with the maximum stock price drop exceeding 70%.
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The second tailwind is overseas expansion. Starting from CNY 17 at the beginning of2023, the stock price has risen to CNY 60 currently, an increase of more than 2.5 times. Has the imagination space for this second phase been fully released?
01 First Tailwind: Domestic Explosion Has Ended
1. The Heavy Truck Industry Benefits from Urbanization and Industrialization
As typical means of production, the demand for heavy trucks has always been tightly bound to two downstream sectors: industrial production and logistics transportation.
1) Logistics Transportation: This is the most core application scenario for heavy trucks, accounting for over 70%, and is highly correlated with indicators such as macroeconomic prosperity, freight turnover, and e-commerce penetration rates. 2) Engineering Infrastructure: Covering real estate, infrastructure construction, and mining, it is closely linked to fixed asset investment, government infrastructure spending, and commodity prices.
Over the past two decades, China's magnificent process of urbanization and industrialization ignited the demand in the domestic heavy truck market. In global heavy truck sales, China once accounted for as much as 40-50%. However, as the Chinese heavy truck market matures, it has transformed into a typical "policy-driven cyclical" market—emission upgrades, trade-in programs, overweight/oversize control, and oil-gas price spreads collectively constitute the core switches for demand fluctuations.
In 2016, the strictest-ever policy on controlling overweight and oversize vehicles was introduced, leading to a general decrease in single-vehicle capacity by 20%-30%. Society purchased large numbers of new vehicles to compensate for the capacity gap;
At the same time, environmental protection policies tightened. Various regions successively introduced policies to eliminate diesel trucks meeting the China III emission standard, providing corresponding subsidies and releasing substantial replacement demand. Sales reached a historical peak of 1.6 million units in 2020.
However, in 2022, due to demand pull-forward and the downturn in real estate, industry sales fell to a ten-year low of 670,000 units.
It is evident that the domestic market suffers from high policy volatility and thin industry profits, making it no longer suitable as the core focus of analysis.
2. More Critical Variables are Technology Iteration and Landscape Reshaping
After decades of continuous development, the Chinese heavy truck industry has achieved full localization and built the world's most complete and cost-effective heavy truck supply chain system. From core components like engines and transmissions to vehicle manufacturing, a high degree of autonomous controllability has been realized.
More critically, heavy trucks have achieved true overtaking on the curve in the new energy track. The domestic industry began promoting heavy truck electrification via policy in 2019; after June 2024, since the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of electric heavy trucks in short-to-medium haul scenarios became significantly lower than that of fuel vehicles, the economic inflection point officially arrived. The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks in China began to rise non-linearly, stabilizing around 30% in 2025-2026.
In terms of industry landscape, the head effect continues to strengthen. Specifically, CNHTC's market share increased from 16% in 2019 to 27% in 2025, becoming the leading enterprise with the most significant share gain in the industry.
From a global perspective, the Chinese market is not only the largest in volume but also leads globally in the speed of new energy transition. This means that the long-term competitive logic of the Chinese heavy truck industry is evolving from traditional diesel heavy truck scale and cost advantages to comprehensive evolution in three-electric technology, battery swapping models, charging networks, and scenario operation capabilities in the new energy era.
02 Going Overseas: The Second Tailwind Has Just Begun
As mentioned above, the global heavy truck market size is approximately CNY 1.6 trillion. Although China has the highest sales volume share, due to lower Average Selling Prices (ASP), the corresponding market space is only CNY 0.3 trillion; while the overseas market reaches CNY 1.3 trillion, more than 4 times the domestic market.
For Chinese heavy truck enterprises, exports have shifted from being a cyclical supplement in the past to a structural growth engine. This turning point occurred in 2021, when disruptions in overseas supply chains gave Chinese heavy truck enterprises the opportunity to demonstrate their strength; until Q1 2026, the momentum of heavy truck exports remained strong, with year-on-year growth reaching 37%, and the drivers of this export growth have shifted from single markets to multiple blooms across Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.
Further breaking down by regional structure, the differences between the global heavy truck market and the Chinese market become even more pronounced. From an investment perspective, the global heavy truck market should be understood using two analytical frameworks: "Mature High-Value Markets" and "Emerging High-Penetration Potential Markets."
1. Export Expansion Hinterland: Asia, Africa, and Latin America Rely on Cost-Performance Ratio
The Asian, African, Latin American, and Middle Eastern markets have an annual total demand approaching 900,000 units, serving as the main battlefield for current Chinese brand exports. Compared to mature markets, these markets have relatively lower ASPs, with Africa at approximately CNY 270,000/unit and Asia at approximately CNY 346,000/unit.
However, the advantage of these markets lies in rapid expansion and relatively low entry barriers. Chinese brands' cost-performance advantage is extremely significant, and product iteration speed is fast. Under equivalent performance, prices are only about half that of overseas brands, rapidly replacing used cars and some new cars from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and the US.
We judge that the landscape of "rapid rise of Chinese systems, retreat of European/Japanese brands to high-end or gradual exit" in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East will continue, and this region will become the base for Chinese automakers' exports:
Africa is the growth market with the highest certainty. Annual sales of new + used vehicles exceed 200,000 units, with Chinese automakers exporting over 100,000 units. In the future, as African mining booms and urbanization progresses, Chinese automakers will enjoy beta dividends. Achieving 400,000 or even 500,000+ units in the future is a high-probability event.
Southeast Asia is China's largest export market and the second-largest incremental region after Africa, with the main logic coming from share improvement.
Breakthrough in slow-burn, relatively high-value markets like Latin America and the Middle East. Latin America's ASP is CNY 455,000, and the Middle East is CNY 400,000/unit. Local industrial bases are stronger or there is a preference for Western brands, so the improvement of domestic share is slower than in Africa and Southeast Asia. Localization is a necessary path.
2. Turning Point in High-End Markets: New Energy Transition Opens a Door in Europe
Of course, the most anticipated markets remain Europe and the US, which are also the recent focal points of market attention.
Annual sales in the European and US markets consistently hover around 600,000 units, with roughly 300,000 units each in Europe and the US; furthermore, the per-unit ASP is significantly higher—for example, the average selling price of a North American conventional tractor-heavy truck exceeds USD 170,000, which is 4 times the Chinese price.
In the era of fuel vehicles, the European and US markets had extremely high thresholds regarding emission standards, fuel efficiency, and reliability requirements, making it difficult for Chinese enterprises to break through, with the market monopolized long-term by the four local OEMs. However, the new energy revolution has opened a door for Chinese enterprises to access the high-end European market—as mentioned earlier, the electrification penetration rate of Chinese heavy trucks has reached 30%, while what is this number in Europe? The answer is less than 2%.
Heavy truck electrification in Europe mainly faces three practical obstacles:
1. The purchase cost of electric heavy trucks is significantly higher than traditional fuel models, reaching 2-3 times, making it difficult to recover costs from a TCO perspective;
2. The battery capacity of electric heavy trucks in Europe is mainly concentrated at 300-400 kWh, resulting in relatively limited vehicle range;
3. Insufficient construction of charging piles and other infrastructure also constrains the process of heavy truck electrification.
But in 2026, heavy truck electrification in Europe is expected to welcome a historic turning point. On the policy level, issues regarding heavy truck charging infrastructure will be gradually resolved, while clear limits on heavy truck carbon emissions will be set (sales of electric heavy trucks in Europe need to exceed 60,000 units by 2030 to meet carbon emission targets). We estimate that the future electrification rate of heavy trucks in Europe will reach 25-30%, comparable to the current penetration rate of buses.
Chinese enterprises have indeed established a significant generational lead advantage on the new energy track. While traditional giants like Daimler and Volvo in Europe are still in the first or second generation of electric heavy truck products, mainstream Chinese products have iterated to the third generation.
This leadership is not only reflected in vehicle integration but stems from the world's strongest and most cost-effective three-electric supply chain system cultivated in China's new energy passenger vehicle sector, directly translating into insurmountable cost barriers: A Chinese electric heavy truck configured with over 430 kWh sells domestically for approximately CNY 430,000, while similar European domestic models cost EUR 200,000-250,000, several times the price of Chinese models.
Currently, because it is still in the nascent stage of electrification penetration, European electric heavy trucks are still monopolized by four companies: Volvo, Renault, Mercedes-Benz, and Scania. But this huge gap of "one generation ahead in technology, significant cost advantage" provides perfect conditions for Chinese heavy trucks to replicate Yutong's success story.
If estimated based on a 30% electrification rate in Europe, it corresponds to a market space of approximately 100,000 electric heavy trucks; relying on product strength and cost-performance advantages, Chinese automakers are expected to occupy more than 30% of the share, i.e., annual sales exceeding 30,000 units. Considering that the net profit per unit of European electric heavy trucks may reach approximately CNY 300,000, this corresponds to a profit increment of CNY 10 billion.
03 Is CNHTC Prepared for the New Tailwind?
By this point, the industry logic is very clear: The domestic market has completed training, and the new tailwind is the overseas market—establishing a foothold in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, while looking towards Europe and the US. In this historic tailwind, the most representative company is CNHTC.
1. CNHTC is a Benchmark Enterprise
Similar to Yutong Bus, the technological evolution of CNHTC is a classic case of "Introduction, Digestion, Absorption, and Re-innovation."
Its technological leap is attributed to two key international collaborations.
In 2003, the company established Jinan Huawo Truck in a joint venture with Volvo, taking the first step in deep cooperation with top-tier international commercial vehicle enterprises.
2009 was a more critical turning point. CNHTC signed a strategic cooperation agreement with German MAN, systematically introducing advanced European vehicle platforms, rigorous quality management systems, and mature R&D processes, injecting international genes into the company's technical system.
Today, CNHTC possesses strong independent R&D and manufacturing capabilities in core heavy truck components such as engines, transmissions, and axles. The best verification is market share data: CNHTC's domestic market share has risen to 27%, firmly ranking first.
2. Going Overseas is CNHTC's Lifeline; Electrification Strength Still Needs to Break Through Trade Barriers
The company has maintained the No. 1 position in domestic heavy truck exports for 21 consecutive years, accounting for nearly half of the industry's total export volume. In Jan-Apr 2026, the proportion of its export sales to total sales exceeded 50%.
In key regional markets, CNHTC has established a dominant advantage, especially in Africa, where its market share reaches 50%-60%. This advantage was not achieved overnight; its overseas journey dates back to the "Huanghe" brand heavy trucks serving the Tanzania-Zambia Railway in the 1970s. After decades of deep cultivation, it has become the No. 1 Chinese heavy truck brand locally.
In fact, a well-developed sales and aftermarket service network, along with a deep understanding of local markets, constitutes CNHTC's core barrier in overseas markets: It has over 140 overseas representative offices, more than 250 primary dealers, over 700 service outlets globally, and has established 37 assembly plants.
Going overseas is not just a tailwind but has already become CNHTC's lifeline. 2022 was a key turning point when CNHTC's export sales exceeded domestic sales for the first time; considering the larger gap in per-unit profit (domestic fuel vehicle per-unit profit is a few thousand yuan, new energy vehicles incur losses; overseas fuel vehicle per-unit profit is CNY 20,000-50,000), by now, the majority of the company's profits are contributed by overseas markets.
Another pivot for future overseas expansion is the new energy transition in Europe opening up imaginative space, but CNHTC's dominance in pure electric heavy trucks has not yet been fully verified.
Engineering machinery enterprises represented by SANY have crossed over into the heavy truck market. Leveraging first-mover advantages in electrification and direct sales models, they have secured a place in engineering segment markets such as mixer trucks and dump trucks, once ranking first in market share for new energy heavy trucks.
Facing the wave of energy transition, CNHTC established the "Blue Cube" clean energy technology platform. In Jan-Apr 2026, the company's new energy heavy truck sales grew 89% year-on-year, topping the list of domestic new energy heavy truck sales, preliminarily verifying its market position.
However, CNHTC's entry into Europe, a globally high-end mature market, has only recently begun, especially as Sino-European trade friction casts a shadow over this market.
But compared to buses, heavy trucks have made relatively sufficient preparations. In 2025, its diesel models passed EU certification; in 2026, CNHTC signed an OEM production agreement with Steyr Automotive of Austria. According to the agreement, CNHTC's diesel heavy trucks and pure electric heavy trucks will undergo localized production in Austria.
Of course, the pessimistic scenario is that CNHTC may share the European market in the future through technology licensing/joint ventures, just as MAN once shared the benefits of growing in the Chinese market through CNHTC.
04 Halfway There: Calculating CNHTC's Imagination Space
1. Method One: Quantitative Estimation from Industry Perspective
CNHTC's projected operational base for 2026 is: annual sales of approximately 300,000 units, exports of 150,000 units, revenue scale of approximately CNY 100 billion, profit of approximately CNY 7 billion (per-unit profit CNY 23,000), and market cap of CNY 90 billion.
In CNHTC's operational goals, the focus is primarily on exports: Exports of 150,000 units in 2025, targeting 250,000 units by 2030.
We believe this target is not aggressive. Excluding North America and China, the global heavy truck market is 1 million units. Assuming the realistically addressable export market volume for CNHTC in the long term is 800,000 units, if CNHTC achieves a share of over 40%, it corresponds to a level of 300,000-400,000 units.
Moreover, considering that new energy transition will drive an overall increase in per-unit value by 30%, CNHTC's overseas profit will increase to about 3 times that of 2025, corresponding to CNY 21 billion in profit for CNHTC (half of the increment from Europe, half from Asia, Africa, and Latin America).
In other words, if export sales volumes and new energy transition materialize, CNHTC's future is indeed still worth expecting.
2. Method Two: Benchmarking Against Global Leaders
Excluding China, the global market is dominated by four giants, which together control over 90% of the European and US market shares, among which:
Daimler Truck: No. 1 in North America, Top 3 in Europe, with the strongest profit elasticity in North America.
Traton: No. 1 in Europe, with its dual-brand layout of Scania + MAN superior to a pure single-brand model. Volvo: Outstanding high-end advantage in Europe, leading in new energy and autonomous driving layouts. PACCAR: No. 2 in North America, with profitability and ASP leading in the long term.
Compared to global leaders, Chinese heavy truck enterprises exhibit a clear gap in profitability. Taking Daimler Truck and PACCAR as examples, the former can achieve revenue of CNY 400 billion and profit of CNY 30 billion at peak; the latter can achieve revenue of CNY 200 billion and profit of CNY 30 billion at peak.
According to the estimates in the previous subsection, CNHTC may achieve annual operating revenue of CNY 200 billion and net profit of CNY 20 billion in the future, meaning it would join the first tier of the global heavy truck industry. From the development experience of other manufacturing industries, this is not an unrealistic dream, but whether the European market opens up indeed becomes a key variable affecting the endgame.