In 2026, the low-altitude economy continues to gain momentum. As factories commence production across multiple regions, airworthiness certification accelerates, and intended orders accumulate, eVTOL appears to be rushing toward reality at an unprecedented pace. Figures such as 2,000 intended orders and trillion-level market forecasts have only intensified external anticipation for "air taxis." However, the actual pace of the industry may be much slower than external expectations suggest.
Dong Ming, Founder and CEO of Volant, recently stated candidly in an interview, "The next 5 to 10 years will mark the early closed-loop stage for eVTOL."
From "Concept Aircraft" to the "Airworthiness Chaos Period"
In 2026, there is a strong industry consensus that this is a pivotal year for eVTOL airworthiness certification and commercialization, one that will shape the competitive landscape for the next 5 to 10 years. Most companies have made accelerating airworthiness certification their core annual objective. However, a pivotal year does not necessarily mean a year of explosive growth.
Some investors have described the industry landscape in 2026 as a "chaos period where airworthiness certification and commercial pilots intertwine." Flying cars are shedding the halo of "concept aircraft"; this is no longer just a PowerPoint presentation launch, but a brutal qualification race over low-altitude airspace rights, supply chain costs, and public trust.
Currently, commercial passenger transport via eVTOL remains in its early incubation stage. The industry lacks effective supply and has yet to form a viable commercial closed loop. Dong Ming noted that a major current challenge is whether the R&D status, product quality, and performance of the company's products can meet the requirements of different stages of industrial development.
Why Will the Early Closed Loop Take 5 to 10 Years?
First, airworthiness certification is far more protracted than anticipated.
For a passenger eVTOL to achieve commercial operations, it must sequentially obtain the Type Certificate (TC), Production Certificate (PC), Standard Airworthiness Certificate (SAC), and Operations Certificate (OC). These four core certificates constitute a full-lifecycle compliance closed loop spanning design, manufacturing, individual aircraft delivery, and commercial operations.
Just how difficult is airworthiness certification? Looking at the experience of the C919, it took a full five years from the completion of its maiden flight to obtaining the airworthiness TC. For a completely new eVTOL, the difficulty is even greater since there are no established global safety standards to reference. One manufacturer revealed at an exhibition that, although the product has not yet submitted an airworthiness application, it has already spent over 100 million RMB on design R&D and prototype manufacturing. Adding subsequent test flight and certification costs, the conservative estimate exceeds 2 billion RMB, with a certification timeline set at four years.
The industry anticipates that a surge in certifications will not occur until at least 2027. AutoFlight's "Prosperity" is expected to complete certification in 2027, TCab Tech's E20 targets certification in 2027, and Volant is expected to complete airworthiness certification in the first half of 2027.
Second, the infrastructure is far from forming a cohesive network.
Ranging from the aerial navigation and communication and low-altitude surveillance required in the air, to the vertiports, charging facilities, and security screening needed on the ground, these infrastructure elements require heavy asset investment. Currently, domestic cities only have sporadic layouts and have yet to form an interconnected network system. Furthermore, there are no unified national standards, meaning low-altitude flights can only conduct fragmented point-to-point operations, failing to generate large-scale passenger or cargo flows.
As industry insiders have noted, "The roads are built, but when will the cars arrive?" The reality, however, is that the roads are not even fully built yet.
Third, the "chicken-or-egg" dilemma between cost and scale.
The biggest hurdle to a commercial closed loop is the high overall cost, the core reason being that production volume has not yet scaled up. These two factors mutually constrain each other.
Although eVTOL theoretically possesses a cost advantage—Boston Consulting Group data indicates that the per-passenger per-kilometer cost for eVTOL travel is approximately 10 RMB, significantly lower than the 50 RMB for helicopters—this is based on projections for scaled operations. In the early stages, characterized by a minuscule fleet size and inadequate infrastructure, actual operating costs are unlikely to meet theoretical levels.
Fourth, the gradual path of "cargo first, passengers later" requires time.
In April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) proposed an 18-character development guideline: "cargo first, passengers later; isolation first, integration later; far suburbs first, urban areas later."
The certification difficulty for cargo eVTOLs is lower than that for passenger eVTOLs. With focused R&D efforts, cargo eVTOLs can complete certification within one to two years. Once deployed for actual use, it can generate commercial revenue, helping to replenish corporate funds. However, the implementation of passenger scenarios must wait until the cargo model matures, safety data is accumulated, and the regulatory framework is refined before it can be progressively advanced. This "cargo first, passengers later" process is inherently a lengthy cycle measured in years.
What Will the Second Half of the Race Entail?
A clear signal was sent at the 2026 International Low-Altitude Economy Expo: the domestic low-altitude economy is comprehensively transitioning from showcasing technical concepts to the critical stage of tackling airworthiness challenges and racing toward commercialization.
Over the past few years, domestic eVTOL companies have been busy building prototypes, conducting test flights, and pitching concepts. That was the first half. The starting gun for the second half has already been fired, with the focus shifting to airworthiness certification and scenario implementation.
Some industry insiders have summarized the current state of the industry as "hot at both ends, thin in the middle"—local governments are actively planning, capital markets are highly enthusiastic, and OEMs are springing up like mushrooms. However, the core supply chains, digital air traffic management infrastructure, and mature, sustainable business models required to support the safe commercial operation of low-altitude aircraft remain underdeveloped.
The low-altitude economy is not a short-term fad; it is more akin to a marathon. What truly determines whether eVTOL can take off is not the specifications of a particular model, nor just a single successful flight, but whether it can be integrated into a stable, compliant, safe, and cost-controllable route that has paying customers.
A Trillion-Dollar Market Lies Ahead, But Patience Is Required
According to white papers released by institutions such as Porsche Consulting, the domestic passenger eVTOL market size is projected to exceed one trillion RMB by 2035. By 2030, annual new demand is expected to surpass 12,000 units.
However, the prerequisite for all this is that the industry can smoothly navigate the early closed-loop stage over the next 5 to 10 years.
Dong Ming hopes to see pilot programs in the domestic market similar to the U.S. eIPP (eVTOL Integration Pilot Program) to drive the exploration of operational scenarios and validate economic viability. Volant plans to initiate economic validation from the second half of this year through the first half of next year, practically testing the product's profitability and its commercial value across the entire industry chain.
The commercialization of eVTOL is not merely about building the aircraft; it is about successfully running a complete low-altitude operations system. From airworthiness certification to infrastructure construction, and from cost optimization to scenario validation, every step requires time.
The next 5 to 10 years will mark the early closed-loop stage for eVTOL, transitioning from "able to fly" to "profitable." This is destined to be a marathon that requires patience, not a 100-meter sprint.
A trillion-dollar market lies ahead, but the path to reaching it must be taken one step at a time.
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