Recently, Ericsson released the latest edition of its Mobility Report.
Ericsson publishes this report twice a year, in June and November. I read every single word of each issue carefully.
Currently, there are not many reports analyzing the global market in the industry. GSMA, ITU, IDC, Omdia, and Gartner only occasionally release such reports, whereas Ericsson persists in publishing them regularly every year. Moreover, their reports are highly professional, comprehensive, and authentic, rarely containing hidden agendas, making them invaluable sources of solid information. (This is genuinely not a sponsored post.)
In today's article, I would like to provide a comprehensive interpretation based on the data from this latest report, hoping to help everyone quickly understand the current development status and future trends of the mobile communications market.
█ 5G Subscribers: Continuous Growth
According to the data in the Report, in 2025, approximately 660 million new 5G subscriptions were added globally. As of now (June 2026), 5G subscriptions have exceeded 3 billion, and 5G now carries half of the global mobile data traffic.
Regionally, North America has the highest 5G penetration rate at 79%, followed by Northeast Asia at 60%. Western Europe stands at 54%, and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are at 53%.
By the end of 2031, 5G subscriptions are projected to reach 6.4 billion, accounting for two-thirds of total mobile subscriptions.
As subscribers migrate to 5G, 4G subscriptions continue to decline. In the first quarter of 2026, 4G subscriptions decreased by 77 million, bringing the total below 4.6 billion. During the same period, 3G subscriptions dropped by 18 million, while 2G subscriptions fell by 23 million. Both 2G and 3G are being phased out at an accelerating pace.
Mobile Subscriptions by Technology (in 100 Millions)
The Report also provides specific data analysis for various regions globally.
In mainland China, 5G subscriptions reached 1.2 billion by the end of 2025, with approximately 70% of mobile data traffic carried by 5G networks. In 2025, over 90% of smartphone shipments were 5G devices, and 5G-Advanced has achieved nationwide commercial deployment. Currently, about 2 million 5G sites in mainland China have been upgraded to support Reduced Capability (RedCap) features, and advanced carrier aggregation (such as 3CC and 2CC) has been activated in over 300 cities.
In North America, by the end of 2025, 5G subscriptions reached approximately 370 million, accounting for 79% of total mobile subscriptions. By 2031, this figure is expected to increase to about 460 million. By 2031, the proportion of 5G subscriptions will reach 92%.
In Western Europe, 5G subscriptions have also grown robustly. By 2025, they reached approximately 300 million, with a penetration rate of about 54%. There are significant differences in 5G penetration rates among Western European countries. By 2031, the share of 5G subscriptions in Western Europe will reach 95%.
It should be noted that compared to six months ago, the growth forecast for global 5G subscriptions has slightly decreased, primarily due to the slowing growth of 5G Standalone (SA) subscriptions in India, as well as the slower adoption of 5G SA in Latin America, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East.
█ 5G Networks: Slight Increase
Regarding the number of 5G networks, currently about 390 operators have launched commercial 5G services, of which over 90 have launched 5G Standalone (SA) services.
For comparison, six months ago, approximately 360 operators globally had launched commercial 5G services. In other words, within half a year, another 30 operators have embraced 5G.
Currently, 838 4G networks have been deployed globally, of which 359 have been upgraded to LTE-Advanced. By the end of 2025, outside mainland China, the global 4G population coverage has reached 90%, and is expected to exceed 95% by 2031. (Yes, 4G will remain a long-term foundational network.)
The Report points out that by the end of 2025, the global 5G population coverage reached 60%, with approximately 400 million more people covered by 5G throughout the year. Outside mainland China, 5G coverage is expected to increase from 50% in 2025 to about 85% by 2031.
Low-band and Mid-band Population Coverage by Region (by the end of 2025)
The 5G population coverage in mainland China, North America, and India currently reaches as high as 90-95%, directly driving the global 5G coverage rate.
Outside mainland China, half of the global population is still not covered by 5G networks, and only about 35% of sites have been upgraded to 5G mid-band. This also indicates that opportunities for 5G coverage supplementation and site upgrades continue to exist.
█ Data Traffic: Robust Growth
In the first quarter of 2026, mobile network data traffic continued to grow robustly. Over the past year, global mobile network data traffic increased by 22% year-on-year, a growth rate slightly higher than previously expected.
Global Mobile Network Data Traffic and Year-on-Year Growth
By the end of 2025, the average monthly mobile data traffic per active smartphone globally reached 22 GB. Currently, the global monthly mobile network data traffic has reached 210 EB. The sustained robust growth in markets such as India and North America has provided a significant driving effect.
The growth in mobile data traffic stems, on the one hand, from the increase in smartphone subscriptions, and on the other hand, from the rise in average data usage per subscription. Among these, the growth in video content consumption is the primary driver. By the end of 2025, video traffic accounted for approximately 75% of total mobile data.
In 2025, both global mobile data traffic and total mobile network data traffic, which includes Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) (i.e., converting mobile communication signals such as 5G into indoor wireless or wired local area networks), were slightly higher than expected, reaching 146 EB and 203 EB per month at year-end, respectively.
Looking ahead, mobile data traffic will grow by 2.2 times by 2031, reaching 328 EB per month. During the same period, total mobile network data traffic, including FWA, is expected to increase by approximately 2.5 times, reaching 515 EB per month.
Global Mobile Network Data Traffic (EB/Month)
In 2025, the mobile network data traffic saw its highest annual net increase to date.
In 2025, the share of mobile data traffic carried by 5G increased from 34% to 48%, and is projected to reach 85% by 2031. Total mobile network data traffic is expected to grow by 14% year-on-year by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% over the entire forecast period.
The Report also points out that traffic growth is not evenly distributed within the same operator's network. For example, in densely populated urban areas, traffic demand can be up to 1,000 times higher than in rural areas. (The disparity is highly evident.)
█ FWA and Satellite: Significant Growth Rates
The Report specifically emphasizes that the combination of fiber optics, FWA, and satellite technologies will be critical in supporting an increasingly digital world.
Globally, satellite broadband subscriptions are expected to increase from approximately 10 million at the end of 2025 to about 33 million by the end of 2031.
Satellite Broadband Subscriptions (Millions)
Domestic fiber broadband is relatively well-developed in China, so FWA has not received much attention. In fact, the development of FWA overseas has far exceeded expectations and has become a popular direction.
According to the data, 83% of operators provide FWA services. Among them, 175 operators offer FWA services via 5G networks, accounting for 71% of all FWA operators.
Global FWA connections are projected to grow from 185 million at the end of 2025 to 350 million by the end of 2031, accounting for 17% of total fixed broadband connections. Of these 350 million connections, nearly 85% are expected to be based on 5G networks.
During the same period, the total number of various fixed broadband connections will reach approximately 2 billion.
FWA Connections (Millions)
█ IoT: Steady Advancement
Next, let us look at the data regarding the Internet of Things (IoT).
The Report indicates that by the end of 2025, the total number of cellular IoT connections was approximately 4.5 billion. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to be about 10% through 2031, at which point it will approach 8 billion.
By the end of 2025, Broadband and Critical IoT (based on 4G/5G) connections reached approximately 2.6 billion. By 2031, these types of connections are expected to continue holding the largest share of cellular IoT device connections.
In terms of cellular IoT connections, Northeast Asia remains in the lead. By the end of 2025, its connections accounted for about 70% of the global total.
Cellular IoT Connections by Segment and Technology
The Report focuses on the progress of Reduced Capability (RedCap) and its latest evolutionary enhancement, enhanced RedCap (eRedCap).
Currently, 14 operators in the global market have launched commercial RedCap services. Additionally, 42 operators across 27 countries are investing in the deployment of 5G RedCap technology. eRedCap will commence laboratory testing this year and is expected to enter full commercial deployment in 2028 and beyond.
█ 6G: Full-Scale Launch
The Report also briefly mentions 6G.
Standardization discussions for 6G have already commenced. AI-native 6G is expected to bring a series of new capabilities, including: comprehensive support for Integrated Sensing and Communications (ISAC), seamless integration of terrestrial and satellite networks to achieve space-ground integration and reduce coverage gaps, and significantly improved energy efficiency.
According to forecasts, 6G is expected to adopt a core network built on the architectural principles of 5G SA, paired with a completely new Radio Access Network (RAN) architecture and new radio interface. For traditional use cases such as enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB), Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), and Internet of Things (IoT), 6G will substantially enhance performance and achieve service differentiation through robust guarantees.
The first batch of implementable 6G specifications (standards) is planned to be finalized by the end of 2028 or early 2029. The first commercial 6G services are expected to be rolled out around 2030, with specific timelines varying by region and country.
Industry forecasts suggest that, similar to5G, the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, and GCC countries will be the earliest markets to deploy 6G.
By the end of 2031, global 6G subscriptions are projected to reach 180 million. This figure does not yet include early subscriptions for AI-enabled devices such as autonomous vehicles, smart glasses, and drones.
█ Conclusion
Above is the key data provided by the Ericsson Mobility Report.
Beyond these data points, the Report also provides special commentary on the current development trends of the entire mobile communications industry. This mainly includes: the accelerated commercialization of differentiated connectivity, AI-driven uplink traffic growth, and mobile connectivity empowering enterprise AI digital transformation, among others.
For those interested, you can also download the original Report for an in-depth understanding.
Driven by the AI wave, the entire mobile communications industry is undergoing profound transformations. Gaining as much understanding as possible of global technology evolution trends and user market reactions to these technologies will help us better navigate this transformation.
It is hoped that certain domestic enterprises or institutions will also release analysis reports targeting the global market. Standing from different perspectives may yield different understandings.
Thank you all for your patience in reading!