According to data from MIR DATABANK, the year-on-year growth rate of China's lathe sales in the first three quarters of 2026 rose quarter by quarter, with the third quarter achieving the highest YoY growth among the three quarters. While the fundamental base remains general machinery and automotive components, the steepening slope is driven by three new scenarios: humanoid robots, AI liquid cooling, and semiconductors.
China Lathe Market Size and Growth Trend (Q1-Q3 2026)
Data Source: MIR DATABANK. Lathes include CNC horizontal lathes and CNC vertical lathes.
Where does the incremental demand come from? Three scenarios take the baton.
The first is humanoid robots. Lathing is the first process for all precision components; blanks are first turned on the end face, outer diameter, and inner bore before quenching and finishing can be performed. Taking the planetary carrier of a reducer as an example, the lathe turns the outer diameter and end face, the machining center mills the mounting holes, and internal grinding follows. Materials are mostly alloy steels such as 38CrSi and 42CrMo, with tolerances controlled within 6 micrometers. Small parts for dexterous hands and machine vision primarily rely on Swiss-type lathes. The challenges lie in material properties and efficiency: stainless steel and carbide components demand high machine rigidity, and rough turning of nut internal threads is prone to chatter.
The second is AI liquid cooling, which is also the fastest-landing scenario among the three. Liquid cooling connectors are typical turning parts. Straight-through liquid cooling connectors account for 80% of market demand, featuring cylindrical channels with identical openings at both ends. Processing focuses on high-precision cylindrical surfaces, threads, and sealing surfaces, requiring high batch efficiency, primarily using automatic lathes. L-shaped connectors must adapt to limited space within cabinets, with difficulties lying in the precision of the bend and multi-dimensional dimensional coordination, achieved through one-time forming using automatic lathes, turret lathes, and machining centers in combination.
The third is semiconductors. Rotational parts for semiconductor equipment require higher turning precision: grounding rings for etching equipment are mostly made of aluminum alloy or stainless steel, with diameters less than 400 mm and thicknesses less than 30 mm. Flatness must be controlled within 0.05 mm; the materials are prone to deformation, and stress relief stops are required during processing. Sputtering targets also feature cylindrical structures, with flatness requirements reaching 0.002 mm.
Processes undertaken by lathes across the three scenarios
Information Source: MIR Ruigongye
Growth is in volume, but the structure is changing.
The three scenarios share a common point: they do not require standalone lathes, but rather composite machines capable of performing multiple processes in a single clamping. For shaft components, ball screw nuts, bearing housings, and harmonic reducer shells, the efficiency advantage of compositing is most obvious, making it virtually unavoidable when entering mass production stages.
Therefore, the proportion of conventional lathes in robot components will likely decline—not because demand has disappeared, but because processes are being gradually taken over by turn-mill composites and turn-grind composites. For lathe manufacturers, the focus should now be not on whether they can secure robot orders, but on whether they can keep pace with the transition to compositing. Short-term orders still come from general machinery and automotive components. When mass production truly ramps up, the ability to deliver composite models will determine whether companies can capture that incremental growth.
Beyond lathes, the progress of domestic substitution for machine tools and semiconductor equipment, along with changes in downstream demand, will be comprehensively analyzed at the online seminar on November 18. MIR Ruigongye will host the "Authoritative Insight Sharing on Core Areas of Machine Tools and Semiconductor Equipment in 2026" online seminar, featuring three themes: semiconductor equipment, MIR DATABANK AI Assistant, and machine tools. Registration is welcome!