Produced by Zhineng Auto
In August 2026, monthly car sales reached 1.544 million units, down 22.2% year-on-year (YoY) and up 4.8% month-on-month (MoM) from July. From the perspective of the third quarter, the sales performance is not ideal.
In the first eight months, cumulative domestic passenger car insurance registrations reached 11.74 million units, down 19.3% YoY. The annual target of 20 million units is in jeopardy (virtually impossible to achieve, as exceeding 2 million units per month is too difficult), and the divergence between fuel and electric vehicles continues to widen.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) represent the largest segment in the new energy vehicle (NEV) market, with a mere 4.5% decline; internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles have hit rock bottom, dropping 28.6% and their market share slipping to 39.7%. NEV sales in August alone reached 987,000 units, with a penetration rate of 63.9%, and the cumulative penetration rate for the first eight months stands at 55.1%.
Part 1 Total Volume Under Pressure, Oil-Electric Divergence Reaches Extreme
Cumulative insurance registrations in the first eight months reached 11.744 million units, 2.81 million units less than the same period last year.
During the same period last year (September to December), average monthly sales exceeded 2.17 million units. This year, consumer enthusiasm for car purchases is not particularly strong.
Extrapolating based on the -19.3% slope of the first eight months, the full-year total will likely land at just over 19 million units, nearly 20% less than in 2025.
What will happen in the next four months?
◎ Scenario 1: 5% YoY decline (optimistic, but almost impossible). Sales for the last 4 months = 8.704 million × (1-5%) = 8.268 million units. Total annual sales = 11.744 million + 8.268 million = 20.012 million units.
◎ Scenario 2: 10% YoY decline (moderate, also difficult due to the high base). Sales for the last 4 months = 8.704 million × (1-10%) = 7.833 million units. Total annual sales = 11.744 million + 7.833 million = 19.577 million units.
◎ Scenario 3: 20% YoY decline (pessimistic, but realistic). Sales for the last 4 months = 8.704 million × (1-20%) = 6.963 million units. Total annual sales = 11.744 million + 6.963 million = 18.707 million units.
I estimate the full-year total will be around 19 million units, 4.5 million units less than last year.
Powertrain types (cumulative insurance registrations from January to August):
◎ Pure ICE: 4.658 million units, -28.6% YoY, market share slipping to 39.7%.
◎ BEV: 4.363 million units, -4.5% YoY, the most stable.
◎ PHEV: 1.515 million units, -26.1% YoY.
◎ EREV: 594,000 units, -19.5% YoY.
◎ HEV: 591,000 units, -6.7% YoY.
NEVs (BEV + PHEV + EREV) reached 6.472 million units from January to August, with a penetration rate of 55.1%.
August alone pushed the divergence to a more extreme level:
◎ NEVs: 987,000 units in a single month, penetration rate of 63.9%;
◎ Pure ICE: 481,000 units in a single month, market share dropping to just 31.1%. This is a historical low for ICE vehicles. Adding 75,000 HEVs makes it look slightly better.
Within NEVs, BEVs accounted for 683,000 units, PHEVs for 219,000 units, and EREVs for 85,000 units. Due to taking the wrong route, EREVs are finding it increasingly difficult as they persist down the misguided path of large-battery extended-range systems. We will see if Xiaomi can bring some vitality to the EREV segment going forward.
Part 2: Camps and Brands
Breakdown by camp from January to August:
◎ Traditional domestic brands: 5.77 million units, accounting for 49.1%, -22.7% YoY.
◎ Foreign brands (joint ventures plus imports): 4.032 million units, accounting for 34.3%, -23.1% YoY.
◎ New forces: 1.566 million units, accounting for 13.3%, +11.5% YoY.
Domestic brands lead foreign brands by 14.8 percentage points, and the gap continues to widen compared to last year. New forces are the only camp with positive growth.
In August, the top 15 brands ranked by sales: Leapmotor holds steady at sixth, and Tesla returns to tenth:
◎ BYD: 232,000 units;
◎ Geely: 174,000 units;
◎ Changan: 85,000 units;
◎ Chery: 83,000 units;
◎ FAW-Volkswagen: 77,000 units;
◎ Leapmotor: 72,000 units;
◎ SAIC-GM-Wuling: 59,000 units;
◎ FAW-Toyota: 55,000 units;
◎ SAIC Volkswagen: 51,000 units;
◎ Tesla: 50,000 units;
◎ GAC Toyota: 47,000 units;
◎ Great Wall: 46,000 units;
◎ Li Auto: 37,000 units;
◎ NIO: 36,000 units;
◎ BAIC Group: 33,000 units.
Leading domestic brands
◎ BYD: 1.434 million units, -32.6% YoY. In August alone, 232,000 units, -23.5% YoY, the decline has narrowed significantly compared to the first half of the year.
◎ Geely: 1.297 million units, -13.3% YoY, the most stable among leading domestic brands.
◎ Changan: 675,000 units, -19.9% YoY.
◎ Chery: 599,000 units, -28.1% YoY.
◎ Great Wall: 354,000 units, -16.2% YoY.
◎ SAIC-GM-Wuling: 376,000 units, -29.5% YoY.
◎ GAC Aion: 157,000 units, -20.7% YoY.
◎ Hongqi: 179,000 units, -21.1% YoY.
◎ BAIC Group: 236,000 units, +38.9% YoY, one of the few domestic brands with positive growth.
◎ SAIC Passenger Vehicle: 174,000 units, +1.7% YoY.
New forces: Leapmotor and NIO charge the most aggressively, Li Auto rebounds in August
◎ Leapmotor: 395,000 units, +47.9% YoY. In August, 72,000 units, +46.8% YoY, growth has not slowed down.
◎ NIO: 270,000 units, +57.3% YoY. In August, 36,000 units, +8.7% YoY, growth naturally slows down as the base increases.
◎ Li Auto: 259,000 units, -3.1% YoY. In August, 37,000 units, +32.7% YoY, a significant monthly rebound, with the structure shifting to BEVs.
◎ Xiaomi: 248,000 units, +10.4% YoY. In August, 30,000 units, -16.7% YoY, in the transition period for facelift models.
◎ AITO: 205,000 units, -10.0% YoY. In August, 22,000 units, -44.6% YoY, in the model changeover gap for M8/M9.
◎ XPeng: 190,000 units, -23.1% YoY. In August, 30,000 units, -13.8% YoY.
Foreign camp: German brands lead the decline, Japanese brands hold the line
The market has chosen BEVs. Except for Tesla, foreign brands do not have as many BEV products, so they have been under significant pressure this year.
Looking at the data from January to August:
◎ FAW-Volkswagen: 705,000 units, -25.0% YoY. Dropped 30.7% in August, the steepest decline among German brands.
◎ SAIC Volkswagen: 484,000 units, -31.0% YoY. Dropped 39.4% in August, with the ID. series under obvious pressure.
◎ GAC Toyota: 423,000 units, -12.1% YoY. The most resilient among Japanese joint ventures.
◎ FAW-Toyota: 434,000 units, -12.5% YoY.
◎ Tesla: 317,000 units, -12.6% YoY. In August, 50,000 units, -11.9% YoY, Model Y/3 remain highly competitive.
◎ SAIC General Motors: 262,000 units, -20.9% YoY.
◎ Dongfeng Nissan: 252,000 units, -20.3% YoY. Dropped 54.1% in August, a monthly cliff.
◎ Dongfeng Honda: 139,000 units, -29.4% YoY.
◎ GAC Honda: 118,000 units, -45.6% YoY.
◎ Brilliance BMW + imported BMW: 300,000 units, -21.7% YoY.
◎ Beijing Benz + imported Mercedes-Benz: 281,000 units, -25.4% YoY.
◎ Lexus: 92,000 units, -25.3% YoY.
Summary
Total volume dropped by nearly 20% in the first eight months, making it increasingly difficult to stay at the table. BEV products have become a key variable in competition this year. ICE vehicle sales are declining too fast, making life hardest for foreign brands without BEV products.
Among the new forces, Leapmotor and NIO have reaped the biggest dividends from their new product cycles, while Li Auto has found its rhythm in the BEV transition. The elimination race in 2026 must be tackled from both domestic and overseas fronts. The overseas market is a stable pool of demand, while domestically we can only expand moderately as a reference.
Differences in specific models and retail data for major brands will be uniformly published on ZhinengKanKeji. You are welcome to check it out.