"A track once deemed a false demand is now attracting the entire automotive industry chain to place new bets. " Author | Tian Zhe Editor | Li Yuchen
"The delivery volume of unmanned delivery vehicles grew seven to eight times in 2025 compared to 2024, and in 2026 it will grow another two to three times on the basis of the previous year. For a B2B scenario that is deployment-heavy and operation-heavy, this already represents remarkably explosive growth," Ren Liangliang, COO of Yika Intelligence, told Leifeng.com.
The sudden surge in popularity of unmanned delivery vehicles is not due to technological breakthroughs finally achieved by the industry in 2025, but rather because the economic equation that remained unsolved over the past few years has begun to balance out.
Three years ago, the total cost of a single unmanned delivery vehicle was still between 200,000 and 300,000 RMB, or even 300,000 to 400,000 RMB. Many scenarios could be technically proven, but it was difficult for customers to procure them on a large scale. After 2025, the NEV (New Energy Vehicle) supply chain continues to reduce costs, and the prices of core components such as domain controllers, LiDAR, batteries, and electric drives have dropped, pushing the total vehicle cost of unmanned delivery vehicles closer to the range acceptable to customers.
A relevant person in charge at Neolix told Leifeng.com that compared to two years ago, the unit cost of its unmanned delivery vehicles has dropped by more than 50%, falling to under 70,000 RMB (roughly $10,000).
In addition to cost reduction, road rights and regulatory rules are also gradually becoming clear. In the past, unmanned delivery vehicles were mostly confined to limited scenarios such as campuses, industrial parks, and malls. Now, they are beginning to enter higher-frequency logistics networks such as express delivery, postal services, supermarkets, pharmaceutical cold chain, tire delivery, and instant freight.
This raises a new question for the unmanned delivery industry in 2026: Are unmanned delivery vehicles truly ushering in real-scale deployment, or are they being pushed into the spotlight once again by capital and industry hype?
01 Unmanned Delivery Vehicles Enter Real Business
Recently, the Smart Logistics Branch of the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released the "2025-2026 Commercialization Research Report on the Unmanned Delivery Vehicle Industry," predicting that by 2030, the annual sales of unmanned delivery vehicles in China will reach 860,000 units, and the cumulative industry ownership will exceed 2 million units. In 2025, the annual production and sales of unmanned delivery vehicles were about 27,000 units, with an industry ownership of nearly 40,000 units.
Whether long-term forecasts can be realized depends on whether customers are willing to continue paying today, and the key factors influencing this decision are fulfillment stability and per-ticket cost.
Guo Long, Vice President of MINIEYE, told Leifeng.com that late delivery of fresh produce may lead to spoilage, and delayed delivery of medicines may lead to compensation. Whether the delivery vehicle can stably complete orders is the prerequisite for customers' willingness to continue using it. Currently, the normal order fulfillment rate of Xiaozhu Unmanned Vehicle has exceeded 95%, and even in peak scenarios such as e-commerce promotions and holidays, the fulfillment rate can be maintained at around 90%.
Costs, on the other hand, directly affect whether customers expand their procurement. In the same scenarios, the per-ticket delivery cost of unmanned vehicles is 25%-35% lower than that of purely manual labor. In scenarios with unstable labor supply, such as night delivery, severe weather, and remote outlets, customers also have a higher acceptance of unmanned vehicles.
The significant increase in the sales of unmanned delivery vehicles is partly due to the obvious change in the customer structure.
In the past, orders for unmanned delivery vehicles came more from a few top logistics customers and scattered procurement customers. By 2026, large customers began to increase their investment, and small and medium-sized merchants, individual operators, and small and micro distribution entities also began to enter the payment system.
A relevant person in charge at Neolix stated that its unmanned delivery vehicle customer structure has shifted from early reliance on a single top logistics customer to a multi-tiered structure where deep binding with large customers, batch procurement by small and medium-sized merchants, and independent payment by individuals and small/micro operators coexist.
The shift among customers from purchasing individual vehicles to running fleets has further expanded demand.
Zhou Qing, Co-founder and COO of Zelos, said that many customers now not only use unmanned vehicles themselves but are also considering gradually converting their original manned fleets into unmanned fleets, and then generating revenue by boosting vehicle utilization and operational efficiency.
According to introductions, fleet orders currently account for about 20% of Zelos's overall orders, and it is expected to potentially reach 50% by the end of this year.
When customers start operating fleets, the competitive logic of the unmanned delivery industry will also change. Just as passenger car companies a few years ago used the available cities and roads for ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) as a major selling point to attract more orders, unmanned delivery companies are now also competing in the number of cities opened and the volume of customers.
Thus, "mapless" unmanned delivery has become an important direction this year.
In the past, when unmanned delivery vehicles entered a new city, they often needed to collect HD (High-Definition) maps first, and then complete route adaptation, testing and verification, and operational debugging. The delivery cycle was usually calculated in months. As vehicles move from fixed routes to