On October 15, Tesla held a launch event at its rocket test site in McGregor, Texas. The new Roadster accelerated up an arched ramp, nose pointed skyward, detached, flipped once in the air, and landed on all four wheels, standing steady.
Musk's original quote from eight years ago was: "Want a flying car? Just put four wheels on a helicopter."
He added an even harsher remark: flying cars are "too noisy, too dangerous," and "the kinetic energy of a hubcap falling from the sky could kill someone."
Eight years later, on October 15, he made a car actually fly once, then stated on stage: "Flying cars will indeed exist in the future."—but immediately admitted that he himself did not know if this vehicle could legally hit the road.
Five days later, on October 20, at Chery's Global Innovation Conference, two "Lingxiao" eVTOL models were officially unveiled: the Q212, a two-seat compound-wing aircraft with a speed of 120 km/h and a full-load endurance of over 1 hour; and the J506, a five-seat full-tiltrotor aircraft with a speed exceeding 350 km/h and a range of over 1,000 km.
In the same month of October, both sides of the globe were talking about "flight." One side made a car jump once, while the other declared intentions to build intercity air mobility. The gap between them is the account we need to calculate today.
I. Facts First: The Aviation Assets of Six Automakers
List the automakers who have stepped onto the stage, showing only three numbers for each: how long they have invested, how many days they have waited for certification, and how many orders they hold.
Geely (Aero-Electric AE200). In November 2022, it became the first manned passenger eVTOL company accepted by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC). As of October 21, it has been under review for 1,428 days, reaching the fourth stage of the five-stage audit process. It holds orders in the thousands, including hundreds of confirmed orders; it has obtained the CCAR-135 Part Operations Certificate; and its IPO guidance filing on the SSE STAR Market is complete.
Xpeng (HT Aero X3-F). Accepted on March 21, 2024, it has waited 944 days as of October 21. Its production license application was accepted in May 2025. The "Land Aircraft Carrier" flying body made its maiden flight in Shanghai on May 29 this year, and on the same day, five units rolled off the line, completing multi-aircraft test flights.
Xpeng HT Aero official news image GAC (Gaoyu GOVY AirCab). The Huangpu factory was completed on May 29 this year, with the first mass-produced unit rolling off the line, designed for an annual capacity of 100 units; intention orders exceed 2,000 units with a value of over CNY 3.3 billion; financing exceeded CNY 800 million in the first three quarters of this year; the goal is to complete airworthiness certification and begin deliveries by the end of 2026, with the Taizhou base planned for an annual output of 1,000 units.
Changan Automobile takes a different route: In December 2024, it signed a strategic cooperation agreement with EHang Intelligent to jointly develop flying cars. Chairman Zhu Huarong promised at the time: invest over CNY20 billion in the low-altitude economy sector over the next 5 years, and over CNY 100 billion over the next ten years. Regarding their own aircraft model, no acceptance information for a type certificate has been seen yet.
FAW (Hongqi Tianlian No. 1). Holds a scientific research special flight permit and plans to submit certification materials by the end of this year.
Chery (Lingxiao Q212/J506). Unveiled just on October 20, these are currently the two most aggressive models in terms of specifications, but no target year for obtaining certification has been announced.
Six automakers, more than seven aircraft models, type certificates: 0.
It is not that automakers are not working hard. It is that CAAC has not issued a single certificate for any "manned passenger eVTOL" where people sit onboard and fly—the longest wait, VoFly's 1,428 days, is over a year longer than EHang EH216-S's two years and nine months from acceptance to certification. This extra year is not due to slow manufacturing, but because this is the first time the authority is auditing a manned eVTOL; half of the rules for auditing it were established during the audit itself.
II. Calculating Three Accounts
When automakers enter the eVTOL space, they most commonly talk about three "transfers": the electric drive system can be transferred, smart manufacturing can be transferred, and sales channels can be transferred. I acknowledge all three points.
What aviation manufacturing envies most about the automotive industry is scalability and consistency. The wiring harness complexity of a car is no less than that of a small aircraft, and a car manufacturer's daily output exceeds an aircraft factory's annual output.
But one thing cannot be transferred: safety standards.
The functional safety logic for automobiles accepts a failure rate of one in a million; with tens of millions of cars on the road, accident rates are statistical denominators. The safety logic for aviation requires a catastrophic failure probability on the order of one in a billion per flight hour; the denominator is small, making the standards bone-crushingly strict. The distance from automotive regulations to aviation regulations is not a technological gap, but a systemic one—the documentation system, traceability system, and change management system must all be rebuilt from scratch.
Therefore, the manufacturing advantage of automakers is real, but this advantage only materializes after crossing the airworthiness threshold. Before the threshold, automakers and startups stand on the same starting line, or even slower to turn due to their massive systems.
Second Account: Time
All automakers' timelines are written in launch events: roll off the line this year, get certified next year, deliver the year after. The authority's timeline is written in the audit process: acceptance, five stages, and back-and-forth exchanges for every issue report.
The rhythms of these two timelines are completely different. Launch event timelines follow fundraising; audit timelines follow test flight data. Gaoyu dares to write "certification by the end of 2026" into its official stance because it bets on the unmanned category—China has 19 models in this category that have obtained certificates, and the process is established; VoFly's AE200 bets on manned flight, with no one having paved the way before. After 1,428 days, it is still in the fourth stage, and CEO Guo Liang's public statement has shifted to "certification between 2026 and 2027"—listen, the range has already extended to two years.
The account of time is essentially the account of money. Burning hype once a year at launch events is cost-effective for automakers, but letting thousands of orders sit idle on the books burns money every day. Whoever gets certified first turns competitors' time costs into their own moat.
Third Account: Business
This account is the most explicit, placing two numbers side by side: GAC Gaoyu has intention orders exceeding 2,000 units; the Huangpu factory has a designed annual capacity of 100 units.
2,000 units vs. 100 units: either the orders are a story, or the capacity is a joke; one number must give way to the other.
Refer to VoFly's stance: among the thousand-unit orders, only hundreds are confirmed—between "intention" and "confirmation" lies a deposit, a round of financing, and delivery capability.
Look at the per-unit account: The AirCab guide price does not exceed CNY 1.68 million. Even if all 2,000 units are real orders, the CNY 3.3 billion corresponds to cash flow at the intention-deposit level, not revenue. For the flying car business, between orders and revenue lie certification, mass production ramp-up, and operational scenario validation—each step takes years.
The conclusion of this account in one sentence: What automakers are competing on now is not who flies higher, but whose cash flow survives until commercial closure.
III. Which Side Is Tesla Really On?
Looking back at Musk, you will find that this "most daring thinker" has instead slammed the brakes on flying cars for eight years.
His logic is actually the same as airworthiness certification: flying is not difficult; what is difficult is noise, safety, and regulation—every machine flying over cities dropping a part becomes news. The Roadster jump was about performance and buzz, not transportation mode. He has never said Tesla intends to build eVTOLs.
Chinese automakers take a different gamble: using automotive capital, automotive manufacturing, and automotive supply chains to fill aviation gaps. Changan's promise of CNY 20 billion in 5 years and CNY 100 billion in 10 years stands there; GAC raises CNY 800 million annually for Gaoyu; Geely pushes its entire aviation segment to the door of an IPO.
Both approaches are correct; the difference lies in what they revere: Musk reveres the rules of the sky, while Chinese automakers revere the time window.
And the rules of the sky are precisely determined by time. EH216-S took two years and nine months; no one has yet walked through the path for manned flight. Only those who complete the rules first get to discuss the window.
In Closing: Betting on Two Questions
This article makes no predictions, only bets on two questions, with answers coming in the next two years:
First, when will China issue its first type certificate for a manned passenger eVTOL? To whom?
Second, in the first year after certification, whose aircraft are truly flying, with monthly sorties and profitable trips?
Our view has remained unchanged: aircraft are products, airworthiness certificates are tickets, and the connected operational network is the business. Launch events are for others to see; sortie counts are accumulated for oneself.
In this high-stakes bet of automakers building planes, the chips are money, the rules are time, and the deciding factor is operations.
We will recalculate the accounts on the day the first certificate is issued.
[Source Material]
Compiled from CAAC News, China Securities Journal·CS.com.cn, CLS, Securities Times, The Paper, Jiemian News, 36Kr, IT Home, and public industry reports (Data as of October 21, 2026)