Dutch semiconductor equipment giant ASML officially released its Q2 2026 financial report on July 15, 2026. Benefiting from the continued investment in the AI sector and customers accelerating their capacity expansion plans, ASML's revenue and profit for the quarter exceeded expectations, and the company comprehensively raised its full-year 2026 financial outlook.
I. Core Financial Performance
- Quarterly Revenue and Profit: Net sales for the second quarter reached €9.3 billion, with a gross margin of 54.0% and a net income of €2.9 billion.
- Main Reason for Beating Expectations: The installed base management business (Field Option) performed strongly, generating quarterly revenue of €2.8 billion (€300 million above expectations). This was primarily driven by customers extensively adopting software-centric upgrade solutions to rapidly increase existing capacity.
- Shipment Data: A total of 86 new lithography systems and 5 refurbished systems were sold in Q2.
- Shareholder Returns: Approximately €1.1 billion worth of shares were repurchased in Q2. An interim dividend of €1.88 per share for 2026 will be paid on August 5, 2026.
II. End-Market Dynamics
Advancements in AI technology are strongly driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips:
- Logic Chip Segment (Expected full-year revenue growth of approximately 25%): AI demand is driving customers to actively expand existing advanced node capacity and accelerate the ramp-up of next-generation advanced nodes.
- Memory Chip Segment (Expected full-year revenue growth of approximately 75%): Driven by the supply shortage and rising prices of DDR and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), customers have significantly accelerated capacity expansion. As the latest process nodes require more lithography steps, the proportion of lithography in overall fab investment has increased, leading to a simultaneous surge in demand for both EUV and immersion DUV.
III. Future Outlook and Capacity Expansion Plans
Given the strong net bookings in the first half of this year, ASML has outlined its long-term capacity expansion roadmap for the future:
- Financial Guidance:
- Q3 2026: Net sales are expected to be between €11 billion and €12 billion, with a gross margin between 55% and 57%.
- Full-Year 2026: The full-year outlook has been raised, with net sales expected to be between €43 billion and €45 billion, and a gross margin between 54% and 56%.
- 2026 Core Equipment Shipment Estimates:
- Low NA EUV: Approximately 65 units are expected to be shipped, driving EUV business growth of about 45%.
- Immersion DUV: Approximately 130 units are expected to be shipped, roughly at the same level as the same period last year.
- Installed Base Management: Expected to grow by over 30% for the full year.
- Medium- to Long-Term Capacity Doubling Plan:
- 2027: Both EUV and immersion DUV capacities are planned to increase by 30% compared to 2026 levels (EUV orders for 2027 are largely confirmed).
- 2028: A substantial number of EUV orders for 2028 have been received from customers, and the company is currently evaluating the possibility of further increasing EUV and DUV capacities by another 30%.
IV. Geographic Markets and Technological Milestones
- China Market: The net sales proportion from the China market is expected to remain at around 20% in 2026. Given the raised global revenue outlook for ASML, the absolute sales scale in the China market will also be higher than the initial expectation at the beginning of the year, with demand primarily driven by the domestic logic chip segment.
- High NA EUV Progress: CEO Christophe Fouquet confirmed that Intel has officially started using High NA EUV (High Numerical Aperture EUV) in the high-volume manufacturing of its most advanced products. This indicates that some Intel products on the market are already being produced using this system, marking a significant milestone in validating the maturity of this technology.